{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aaf1a06b-d970-404c-8fce-0df91f4d4a95", "symbol": "002877", "name": "Wuxi Smart Auto-Control Engineering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.164, "architecture_energy": 55.648, "architecture_maturity": 52.966, "architecture_confidence": 95.552, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 21.99, "upward_expansion": 9.19, "deceleration": 59.4, "rotation_down": 58.41, "downward_expansion": 82.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.973002, 7.096308, 7.649433, 8.065065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.19, "trend_reference": 8.588347, "distance_from_trend": -0.162819, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.631094, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.166965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.122674, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.233475, "excess_performance": -0.240875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162819, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073833, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.166965, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218779, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044696, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233475, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.27373, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24889282, "relative_activity": 0.827328, "balance": 0.27373, "dry_up": 0.913267, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090163, "annualized_volatility": 0.444698, "from_high_reference": -0.400833, "from_low_reference": 0.132283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.588347, "fair_value_reference": 8.631094, "structural_low": 6.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.000206, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015547, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.344828, "worst_return": -0.143062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.114278, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.004721, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.234972, "worst_return": -0.172641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.1707, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.080264, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.289107, "worst_return": -0.010973, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.467785, 8.044106, 8.415347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.59, "volume": 33400217, "typical_volume": 43748966.7, "trend": 8.731014, "fair_value": 8.691949, "relative_strength": -26.110816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.595326, "energy": 77.410985, "activity_lines": [ 6.909216, 7.239959, 7.862533, 8.271239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.0, "volume": 23394260, "typical_volume": 34166153.8, "trend": 8.65468, "fair_value": 8.659101, "relative_strength": -19.762916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.062079, "energy": 61.581298, "activity_lines": [ 6.908268, 7.132134, 7.740531, 8.15956 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.19, "volume": 24889282, "typical_volume": 30083936.55, "trend": 8.588347, "fair_value": 8.631094, "relative_strength": -21.122674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.163611, "energy": 55.648469, "activity_lines": [ 6.973002, 7.096308, 7.649433, 8.065065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }