{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "aaf1ee15-f494-4fce-9cce-0eadfc836615",
    "symbol": "IAG",
    "name": "International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A.",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 85.803,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 41.4,
    "architecture_energy": 26.582,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.202,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.702,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.06,
        "rotation_up": 28.25,
        "upward_expansion": 64.97,
        "deceleration": 88.25,
        "rotation_down": 27.61,
        "downward_expansion": 17.31
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        5.174667,
        5.249018,
        5.043098,
        4.887021
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 5.198,
    "trend_reference": 4.768674,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.090031,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3.241486,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.603586,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -8.917758,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.042728,
    "excess_performance": -0.131519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090031,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048474,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.603586,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.091336,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.089178,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043192,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042728,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.35223,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1646,
      "relative_activity": 0.880026,
      "balance": 2.35223,
      "dry_up": 0.220006,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.055794,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.368309,
      "from_high_reference": -0.08743,
      "from_low_reference": 0.349079
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 4.768674,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.241486,
      "structural_low": 3.853,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.035572,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005444,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.360633,
        "worst_return": -0.146781,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.087441,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.091325,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.19842,
        "worst_return": -0.141002,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.278735,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.239142,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.79967,
        "worst_return": -0.107407,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.236204,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.188032,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.879225,
        "worst_return": -0.398843,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.095574,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.485587,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.176019,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.409788,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.152487,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.040937,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.077619,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.004568,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.082215,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.027049,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.027282,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-06-12",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.115825,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.080518,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "fair_value": 2.950165,
        "relative_strength": -16.422376,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.506608,
        "energy": 23.883072,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "energy": 18.368495,
        "activity_lines": [
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          4.517395
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 546.6,
        "trend": 4.540711,
        "fair_value": 2.983957,
        "relative_strength": -16.598521,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -41.766806,
        "energy": 23.071548,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 4.538922,
        "fair_value": 3.001883,
        "relative_strength": -13.225843,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -29.111015,
        "energy": 14.103857,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 1593.1,
        "trend": 4.548202,
        "fair_value": 3.022429,
        "relative_strength": -8.128133,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.713086,
        "energy": 20.046794,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 4.805284,
        "volume": 9074,
        "typical_volume": 1976.8,
        "trend": 4.569182,
        "fair_value": 3.041804,
        "relative_strength": -9.538462,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 21.254808,
        "energy": 30.182726,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 4.984652,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1976.8,
        "trend": 4.591853,
        "fair_value": 3.06179,
        "relative_strength": -8.722855,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 33.96699,
        "energy": 53.802706,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 141,
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        "trend": 4.623607,
        "fair_value": 3.08347,
        "relative_strength": -8.210109,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 43.09521,
        "energy": 66.593807,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 5.562,
        "volume": 436,
        "typical_volume": 2005.65,
        "trend": 4.658174,
        "fair_value": 3.107459,
        "relative_strength": -0.394882,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.129322,
        "energy": 88.549546,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.214164,
          4.944923,
          4.696061,
          4.671271
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 5.564,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2005.65,
        "trend": 4.69634,
        "fair_value": 3.131922,
        "relative_strength": -2.65854,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.384435,
        "energy": 91.387209,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.367733,
          5.09441,
          4.78797,
          4.729711
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 5.508,
        "volume": 257,
        "typical_volume": 2008.5,
        "trend": 4.72634,
        "fair_value": 3.155981,
        "relative_strength": -2.221593,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.846726,
        "energy": 89.003429,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.461039,
          5.211127,
          4.871907,
          4.782076
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 5.212,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1908.5,
        "trend": 4.74134,
        "fair_value": 3.178255,
        "relative_strength": -5.417449,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.977006,
        "energy": 82.439662,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.408831,
          5.251358,
          4.925182,
          4.813409
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 5.078,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1861.05,
        "trend": 4.750074,
        "fair_value": 3.199188,
        "relative_strength": -8.870955,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.031558,
        "energy": 54.389521,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.2968,
          5.254065,
          4.963914,
          4.835129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5.116,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1835.6,
        "trend": 4.759607,
        "fair_value": 3.220108,
        "relative_strength": -7.887336,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.220623,
        "energy": 36.850568,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.2072,
          5.249281,
          5.001951,
          4.858737
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 5.198,
        "volume": 1646,
        "typical_volume": 1870.4,
        "trend": 4.768674,
        "fair_value": 3.241486,
        "relative_strength": -8.917758,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.400177,
        "energy": 26.58193,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.174667,
          5.249018,
          5.043098,
          4.887021
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}