{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aaf30117-da04-4802-971a-b8c8ca6bd7bd", "symbol": "600408", "name": "Shanxi Antai Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.82, "architecture_energy": 34.757, "architecture_maturity": 88.399, "architecture_confidence": 59.883, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.37, "rotation_up": 26.28, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 37.07, "downward_expansion": 64.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.622667, 2.598, 2.780571, 2.996516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.74, "trend_reference": 3.308667, "distance_from_trend": -0.171872, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.486923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101763, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.168315, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.320099, "excess_performance": -0.276895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171872, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159739, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101763, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244894, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137056, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.320099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.483078, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 261868914, "relative_activity": 1.1286, "balance": 1.483078, "dry_up": 1.149235, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132229, "annualized_volatility": 0.611302, "from_high_reference": -0.602899, "from_low_reference": 0.292453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.308667, "fair_value_reference": 2.486923, "structural_low": 2.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.006667, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.013379, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.2375, "worst_return": -0.29805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.012945, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.013103, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.345029, "worst_return": -0.228856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.094052, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010549, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.385965, "worst_return": -0.147799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06701, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038835, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026882, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029703, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", 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-68.331301, "energy": 85.206098, "activity_lines": [ 2.508667, 2.731273, 2.982857, 3.215656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.49, "volume": 304340464, "typical_volume": 291394689.2, "trend": 3.483, "fair_value": 2.480321, "relative_strength": -20.931209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.150677, "energy": 80.044421, "activity_lines": [ 2.484, 2.659636, 2.912048, 3.147118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.51, "volume": 320409973, "typical_volume": 281934539.5, "trend": 3.409667, "fair_value": 2.481795, "relative_strength": -21.416427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.015502, "energy": 58.167953, "activity_lines": [ 2.492, 2.606364, 2.849952, 3.084344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.66, "volume": 180007610, "typical_volume": 269123580.85, "trend": 3.351667, "fair_value": 2.484231, "relative_strength": -17.199727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.287935, "energy": 48.066533, "activity_lines": [ 2.554, 2.592, 2.807952, 3.035978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.74, "volume": 261868914, "typical_volume": 232029877.3, "trend": 3.308667, "fair_value": 2.486923, "relative_strength": -17.168315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.820341, "energy": 34.756719, "activity_lines": [ 2.622667, 2.598, 2.780571, 2.996516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }