{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aaf38c23-ec8b-4ba4-893f-4d5259902d9c", "symbol": "MAKX", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST S&P KENSHO SMART FACTORIES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.05, "architecture_energy": 23.511, "architecture_maturity": 64.569, "architecture_confidence": 95.511, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.14, "rotation_up": 28.11, "upward_expansion": 54.51, "deceleration": 90.9, "rotation_down": 27.13, "downward_expansion": 18.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.409693, 67.768353, 67.252693, 64.725553 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 71.6822, "trend_reference": 61.582495, "distance_from_trend": 0.164003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.393627, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.614696, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.016584, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.291376, "excess_performance": 0.165751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164003, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102228, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.614696, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058787, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.120166, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.291376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.33671, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4701, "relative_activity": 0.527941, "balance": 2.33671, "dry_up": 0.756564, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072846, "annualized_volatility": 0.29537, "from_high_reference": -0.050718, "from_low_reference": 0.530243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.582495, "fair_value_reference": 44.393627, "structural_low": 49.6933, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030801, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.000648, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.172149, "worst_return": -0.047669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081803, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006056, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.411037, "worst_return": -0.014267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.095467, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028653, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127436, "worst_return": -0.023874, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.095119, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125583, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144814, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105136, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.512674, "energy": 45.999327, "activity_lines": [ 69.290795, 69.252846, 65.950872, 63.127046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 64.55, "volume": 8661, "typical_volume": 8122.9, "trend": 60.075241, "fair_value": 43.79791, "relative_strength": 5.864242, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.138508, "energy": 26.889591, "activity_lines": [ 67.580871, 68.480455, 66.166492, 63.445456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.39, "volume": 5821, "typical_volume": 8373.35, "trend": 60.521241, "fair_value": 43.969658, "relative_strength": 5.97711, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.092245, "energy": 21.576501, "activity_lines": [ 66.15552, 67.684192, 66.325845, 63.723827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.36, "volume": 7764, "typical_volume": 8729.5, "trend": 60.994211, "fair_value": 44.157984, "relative_strength": 6.130485, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.8127, "energy": 20.210926, "activity_lines": [ 65.634153, 67.117729, 66.519824, 64.036005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.6822, "volume": 4701, "typical_volume": 8904.4, "trend": 61.582495, "fair_value": 44.393627, "relative_strength": 12.016584, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.050015, "energy": 23.510812, "activity_lines": [ 67.409693, 67.768353, 67.252693, 64.725553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }