{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aaf79ac6-b448-483e-a167-c3ffa57605fb", "symbol": "ETH", "name": "GRAYSCALE ETHEREUM STAKING MINI ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.615, "architecture_energy": 22.61, "architecture_maturity": 81.087, "architecture_confidence": 57.825, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.28, "rotation_up": 31.3, "upward_expansion": 19.23, "deceleration": 46.87, "rotation_down": 19.88, "downward_expansion": 53.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.871333, 17.206364, 17.899048, 18.534645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.29, "trend_reference": 19.796333, "distance_from_trend": -0.076092, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.038037, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.297566, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.758376, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.058672, "excess_performance": -0.184297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170533, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 14.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058994, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.0566, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.169231, "worst_return": -0.280063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.160459, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.202249, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.133703, "worst_return": -0.187215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.295886, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.381207, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.295886, "worst_return": -0.295886, "sufficient": false }, { 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17.55, "volume": 9107402, "typical_volume": 17879464.35, "trend": 20.873, "fair_value": 26.271442, "relative_strength": -41.693527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.613961, "energy": 44.654566, "activity_lines": [ 16.713333, 16.676727, 18.18419, 19.033269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.75, "volume": 9299049, "typical_volume": 15877840.15, "trend": 20.542333, "fair_value": 26.190286, "relative_strength": -39.810943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.384001, "energy": 30.839553, "activity_lines": [ 17.165333, 16.766, 18.063905, 18.831785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.8, "volume": 8212410, "typical_volume": 14704696.35, "trend": 20.153333, "fair_value": 26.111132, "relative_strength": -39.425909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.103955, "energy": 23.565817, "activity_lines": [ 17.531333, 16.925273, 17.953095, 18.65486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.29, "volume": 8771381, "typical_volume": 13495374.1, "trend": 19.796333, "fair_value": 26.038037, "relative_strength": -38.758376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.614628, "energy": 22.610126, "activity_lines": [ 17.871333, 17.206364, 17.899048, 18.534645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }