{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aafc1fe2-f15f-4068-8d87-2d8502f151f5", "symbol": "4577", "name": "Ofuna Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.557, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.942, "architecture_energy": 54.347, "architecture_maturity": 27.788, "architecture_confidence": 67.814, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.05, "rotation_up": 26.78, "upward_expansion": 20.32, "deceleration": 46.01, "rotation_down": 55.18, "downward_expansion": 59.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.059999, 77.234544, 92.551904, 98.257204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 78.099998, "trend_reference": 97.303333, "distance_from_trend": -0.197355, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.432372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.93162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.252633, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.346552, "excess_performance": -0.09482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197355, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112759, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.93162, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.697686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192526, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.887792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.346552, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.501922, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1829417, "relative_activity": 0.299787, "balance": 0.501922, "dry_up": 0.53533, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.21304, "annualized_volatility": 0.968983, "from_high_reference": -0.588947, "from_low_reference": 1.958333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97.303333, "fair_value_reference": 40.432372, "structural_low": 54.400002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.06087, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018257, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.029925, "worst_return": -0.074053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005195, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.326683, "worst_return": -0.08776, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.18684, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.215495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.690531, "worst_return": -0.179396, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007648, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151803, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.152425, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.09466, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.244755, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118966, 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.975116, "energy": 56.674946, "activity_lines": [ 77.179998, 84.232726, 102.861428, 102.488602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.599998, "volume": 6431668, "typical_volume": 7008521.8, "trend": 95.703333, "fair_value": 39.80609, "relative_strength": -28.161554, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.88888, "energy": 67.423022, "activity_lines": [ 71.439998, 79.154544, 98.401427, 100.497634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79.300003, "volume": 3244640, "typical_volume": 6578047.75, "trend": 96.423333, "fair_value": 40.123397, "relative_strength": -14.673772, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.440501, "energy": 61.992513, "activity_lines": [ 72.54, 78.010908, 95.488571, 99.439354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 78.099998, "volume": 1829417, "typical_volume": 6102390.2, "trend": 97.303333, "fair_value": 40.432372, "relative_strength": -19.252633, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.942242, "energy": 54.347155, "activity_lines": [ 74.059999, 77.234544, 92.551904, 98.257204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }