{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aafd2b78-394e-4086-9cfc-5e6bc1a1709b", "symbol": "CANA", "name": "UBS MSCI Canada UCITS ETF CAD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.21, "architecture_energy": 86.018, "architecture_maturity": 62.2, "architecture_confidence": 70.158, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.76, "rotation_up": 79.11, "upward_expansion": 94.11, "deceleration": 44.77, "rotation_down": 13.27, "downward_expansion": 18.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.543, 26.283091, 25.878405, 25.493076 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.93, "trend_reference": 24.993, "distance_from_trend": 0.077502, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.785301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.361111, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.560413, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149381, "excess_performance": -0.021511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077502, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046593, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.361111, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039304, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149381, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.597718, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200709, "relative_activity": 2.663633, "balance": 4.597718, "dry_up": 1.34246, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01621, "annualized_volatility": 0.104742, "from_high_reference": -0.245806, "from_low_reference": 0.333168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.993, "fair_value_reference": 19.785301, "structural_low": 23.08, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.01384, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.00414, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.088156, "worst_return": -0.050554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.048206, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.009046, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.118876, "worst_return": -0.11992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.085539, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.016888, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.200548, "worst_return": -0.057562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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25.763334, 25.624819, 25.245905, 24.926602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.075001, "volume": 151976, "typical_volume": 74696.2, "trend": 24.578667, "fair_value": 19.500083, "relative_strength": -4.502803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.117664, "energy": 78.97519, "activity_lines": [ 25.876334, 25.735, 25.353548, 25.029968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.440001, "volume": 125254, "typical_volume": 76960.8, "trend": 24.6855, "fair_value": 19.570596, "relative_strength": -1.842545, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.231651, "energy": 89.112441, "activity_lines": [ 26.081334, 25.892637, 25.488215, 25.150054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.459999, "volume": 44644, "typical_volume": 75979.0, "trend": 24.788333, "fair_value": 19.639955, "relative_strength": -1.683885, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.783228, "energy": 87.340155, "activity_lines": [ 26.251334, 26.027273, 25.617095, 25.264538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.290001, "volume": 34019, "typical_volume": 75486.8, "trend": 24.889333, "fair_value": 19.710737, "relative_strength": -3.028437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.112249, "energy": 77.549322, "activity_lines": [ 26.306, 26.103819, 25.721691, 25.36142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.93, "volume": 200709, "typical_volume": 75351.6, "trend": 24.993, "fair_value": 19.785301, "relative_strength": -3.560413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.210402, "energy": 86.01754, "activity_lines": [ 26.543, 26.283091, 25.878405, 25.493076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }