{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab00f06f-a36b-4e7d-ad49-5f3be759d624", "symbol": "SXLI", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Industrials Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.047, "architecture_energy": 51.405, "architecture_maturity": 79.941, "architecture_confidence": 60.413, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.07, "rotation_up": 50.74, "upward_expansion": 76.87, "deceleration": 68.65, "rotation_down": 27.57, "downward_expansion": 12.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.048, 68.991272, 67.486952, 66.327871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 69.68, "trend_reference": 64.932667, "distance_from_trend": 0.073112, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.399487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304881, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.605644, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103405, "excess_performance": -0.067487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073112, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060327, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304881, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052367, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007392, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103405, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.942646, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69136, "relative_activity": 0.848346, "balance": 1.942646, "dry_up": 1.054122, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026495, "annualized_volatility": 0.131183, "from_high_reference": -0.018592, "from_low_reference": 0.267831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.932667, "fair_value_reference": 53.399487, "structural_low": 59.610001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.004591, "positive_rate": 0.595238, "directional_follow_through": 0.595238, "median_excess_return": -0.01461, "regime_survival": 0.738095, "best_return": 0.078902, "worst_return": -0.096991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.005013, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016236, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.136952, "worst_return": -0.048989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.046533, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.007893, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.141835, "worst_return": -0.073749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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69.963193, "energy": 88.861252, "activity_lines": [ 69.246665, 67.817272, 66.045667, 65.059376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 68.5, "volume": 41188, "typical_volume": 91283.75, "trend": 63.880667, "fair_value": 52.872468, "relative_strength": -1.114255, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.859745, "energy": 86.876981, "activity_lines": [ 69.181332, 68.151454, 66.393333, 65.381527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.07, "volume": 81428, "typical_volume": 85378.25, "trend": 64.293667, "fair_value": 53.052308, "relative_strength": 1.359363, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.609524, "energy": 78.326463, "activity_lines": [ 69.467999, 68.690181, 66.871619, 65.780839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.709999, "volume": 151871, "typical_volume": 87876.6, "trend": 64.617333, "fair_value": 53.220064, "relative_strength": -2.617743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.133341, "energy": 52.648666, "activity_lines": [ 68.866666, 68.692363, 67.098095, 66.001247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.68, "volume": 69136, "typical_volume": 81495.05, "trend": 64.932667, "fair_value": 53.399487, "relative_strength": -2.605644, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.046995, "energy": 51.404915, "activity_lines": [ 69.048, 68.991272, 67.486952, 66.327871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }