{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab0759c6-c73e-48f8-a741-7f8d8703e624", "symbol": "IEWQ", "name": "Invesco NASDAQ-100 Equal Weight UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.325, "architecture_energy": 49.119, "architecture_maturity": 66.046, "architecture_confidence": 77.409, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.77, "rotation_up": 41.1, "upward_expansion": 67.8, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.97, "downward_expansion": 26.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.9888, 7.026382, 6.884152, 6.666789 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.13, "trend_reference": 6.4057, "distance_from_trend": 0.113071, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.674639, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.256468, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.634109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.231646, "excess_performance": 0.060754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113071, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0619, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.256468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081829, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006341, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012116, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.231646, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.521514, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 286050, "relative_activity": 5.990049, "balance": 5.521514, "dry_up": 2.854293, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023314, "annualized_volatility": 0.148205, "from_high_reference": -0.010135, "from_low_reference": 0.277091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.4057, "fair_value_reference": 5.674639, "structural_low": 5.677, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.01523, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006899, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03164, "worst_return": -0.001181, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.018218, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002145, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.041835, "worst_return": -0.005399, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.03621, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004926, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03621, "worst_return": 0.03621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114278, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133907, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017581, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00728, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012304, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026856, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation 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"trend": 6.3393, "fair_value": 5.656849, "relative_strength": -0.22861, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.606877, "energy": 58.985063, "activity_lines": [ 7.006533, 7.0284, 6.800138, 6.58354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.87, "volume": 17124, "typical_volume": 33458.45, "trend": 6.370333, "fair_value": 5.664937, "relative_strength": -1.460676, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.213541, "energy": 46.90327, "activity_lines": [ 6.9474, 7.005455, 6.832086, 6.617778 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.13, "volume": 286050, "typical_volume": 47754.2, "trend": 6.4057, "fair_value": 5.674639, "relative_strength": -0.634109, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.325062, "energy": 49.118813, "activity_lines": [ 6.9888, 7.026382, 6.884152, 6.666789 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }