{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab135ce6-e511-4980-80c6-9416f37519bc", "symbol": "002203", "name": "Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.012, "architecture_energy": 19.096, "architecture_maturity": 41.405, "architecture_confidence": 94.469, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.36, "rotation_up": 20.81, "upward_expansion": 42.93, "deceleration": 84.66, "rotation_down": 41.74, "downward_expansion": 34.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.054, 19.929407, 20.15015, 19.129775 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.799999, "trend_reference": 17.71118, "distance_from_trend": 0.174399, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.459467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.815093, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 32.668001, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.423682, "excess_performance": 0.416283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.174399, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.815093, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253112, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.32668, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10012, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.423682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.312624, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 170243271, "relative_activity": 0.857035, "balance": 1.312624, "dry_up": 0.890156, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137424, "annualized_volatility": 0.659424, "from_high_reference": -0.179809, "from_low_reference": 0.956726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.71118, "fair_value_reference": 11.459467, "structural_low": 12.3, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.017778, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.000932, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.172788, "worst_return": -0.076285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.03829, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.089695, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.246559, "worst_return": -0.096857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069457, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.064223, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.85134, "worst_return": -0.154851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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60.896256, "energy": 55.268098, "activity_lines": [ 22.633825, 22.031717, 20.077422, 18.550457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.5, "volume": 203152452, "typical_volume": 191086680.7, "trend": 16.85418, "fair_value": 11.27882, "relative_strength": 21.323471, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.695842, "energy": 41.710129, "activity_lines": [ 21.690798, 21.670527, 20.195539, 18.73765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.639999, "volume": 158749365, "typical_volume": 193951970.35, "trend": 17.042847, "fair_value": 11.318907, "relative_strength": 19.788626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.228213, "energy": 18.853034, "activity_lines": [ 20.089143, 20.943702, 20.110894, 18.788348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.85, "volume": 198730682, "typical_volume": 197153039.55, "trend": 17.24518, "fair_value": 11.358754, "relative_strength": 19.927089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.296413, "energy": 20.510231, "activity_lines": [ 18.934355, 20.336331, 20.032297, 18.840422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.370001, "volume": 179566883, "typical_volume": 198241017.8, "trend": 17.439847, "fair_value": 11.401383, "relative_strength": 24.31466, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.891632, "energy": 20.266426, "activity_lines": [ 18.453565, 19.884232, 19.985223, 18.912991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 170243271, "typical_volume": 198642111.4, "trend": 17.71118, "fair_value": 11.459467, "relative_strength": 32.668001, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.012452, "energy": 19.096483, "activity_lines": [ 19.054, 19.929407, 20.15015, 19.129775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }