{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab179568-2faa-414a-9a4b-226fb2ce939e", "symbol": "IGM", "name": "ISHARES TRUST EXPANDED TECH SECTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.74, "architecture_energy": 29.072, "architecture_maturity": 62.254, "architecture_confidence": 92.83, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.39, "rotation_up": 33.86, "upward_expansion": 58.06, "deceleration": 87.94, "rotation_down": 26.72, "downward_expansion": 19.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 157.110667, 157.340428, 155.660102, 149.414165 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 163.72, "trend_reference": 141.715588, "distance_from_trend": 0.155272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 104.733363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.563208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.357824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.302919, "excess_performance": 0.177294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.155272, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07186, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.563208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029119, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.083578, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034202, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.302919, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.458571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2325616, "relative_activity": 0.78595, "balance": 1.458571, "dry_up": 0.568129, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060093, "annualized_volatility": 0.268151, "from_high_reference": -0.044858, "from_low_reference": 0.454598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 141.715588, "fair_value_reference": 104.733363, "structural_low": 112.553463, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023171, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004256, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082963, "worst_return": -0.025123, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050752, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.020697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08709, "worst_return": -0.073803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.175025, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.060914, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.289488, "worst_return": -0.095315, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"direction": 50.954299, "energy": 46.565619, "activity_lines": [ 158.447569, 158.473441, 149.885543, 143.677707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 161.6, "volume": 1487416, "typical_volume": 3508321.1, "trend": 138.330309, "fair_value": 102.432686, "relative_strength": 10.549628, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.101055, "energy": 50.306943, "activity_lines": [ 159.434942, 159.319651, 151.803812, 145.248528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 153.3, "volume": 1457556, "typical_volume": 3392557.25, "trend": 139.126858, "fair_value": 102.991351, "relative_strength": 6.282354, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.718572, "energy": 34.233442, "activity_lines": [ 157.32, 158.353135, 152.758256, 146.214314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 151.94, "volume": 1379429, "typical_volume": 3198674.2, "trend": 139.818785, "fair_value": 103.529574, "relative_strength": 5.718863, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.958446, "energy": 27.66327, "activity_lines": [ 155.151333, 157.157823, 153.444306, 147.040969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.51, "volume": 1561745, "typical_volume": 3039519.15, "trend": 140.626665, "fair_value": 104.093038, "relative_strength": 5.430439, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.624222, "energy": 22.475629, "activity_lines": [ 154.35, 156.28808, 154.141206, 147.924273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 163.72, "volume": 2325616, "typical_volume": 2958986.4, "trend": 141.715588, "fair_value": 104.733363, "relative_strength": 8.357824, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.739957, "energy": 29.072177, "activity_lines": [ 157.110667, 157.340428, 155.660102, 149.414165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }