{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab182d36-81f4-43f3-9a60-ef5149032088", "symbol": "4261", "name": "Theeb Rent A Car Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -90.374, "architecture_energy": 75.768, "architecture_maturity": 99.16, "architecture_confidence": 87.006, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 24.07, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 49.42, "rotation_down": 72.93, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.066666, 22.790545, 24.216749, 25.789916 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 21.0, "trend_reference": 28.190715, "distance_from_trend": -0.255074, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.169525, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.477216, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.105255, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.372332, "excess_performance": -0.340503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.255074, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155614, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.477216, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.361053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079837, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.372332, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.238948, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4471217, "relative_activity": 1.478443, "balance": 0.238948, "dry_up": 0.848928, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049451, "annualized_volatility": 0.228926, "from_high_reference": -0.520045, "from_low_reference": 0.006229 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.190715, "fair_value_reference": 40.169525, "structural_low": 20.870001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.027905, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.021618, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.100917, "worst_return": -0.133012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.048192, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.036457, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.073945, "worst_return": -0.237468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.057731, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.102824, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.069444, "worst_return": -0.265341, "sufficient": false }, { 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23.446667, 24.056182, 25.559005, 27.214151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.51, "volume": 1759751, "typical_volume": 2815890.9, "trend": 29.244671, "fair_value": 40.544778, "relative_strength": -32.691709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.278433, "energy": 89.983893, "activity_lines": [ 23.058667, 23.686182, 25.128803, 26.746486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.139999, "volume": 1766150, "typical_volume": 2830070.35, "trend": 28.722166, "fair_value": 40.364737, "relative_strength": -31.80632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.978728, "energy": 72.637861, "activity_lines": [ 22.698666, 23.314545, 24.707002, 26.28812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.0, "volume": 4471217, "typical_volume": 3024274.6, "trend": 28.190715, "fair_value": 40.169525, "relative_strength": -36.105255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.373616, "energy": 75.768262, "activity_lines": [ 22.066666, 22.790545, 24.216749, 25.789916 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }