{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab1c9eef-57cc-46fd-8db7-589941efb8e5", "symbol": "600084", "name": "CITIC Niya Wine Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.336, "architecture_energy": 48.218, "architecture_maturity": 85.32, "architecture_confidence": 61.885, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.75, "rotation_up": 27.47, "upward_expansion": 20.67, "deceleration": 66.46, "rotation_down": 38.28, "downward_expansion": 66.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.188667, 4.170182, 4.504429, 5.011742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.23, "trend_reference": 5.572333, "distance_from_trend": -0.240893, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.906795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.283876, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.407242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.418956, "excess_performance": -0.375752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.240893, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074517, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.283876, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234072, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007666, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.418956, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.548458, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18966378, "relative_activity": 0.758172, "balance": 0.548458, "dry_up": 0.984823, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106747, "annualized_volatility": 0.473571, "from_high_reference": -0.47191, "from_low_reference": 0.168508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.572333, "fair_value_reference": 5.906795, "structural_low": 3.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004073, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.005731, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.363465, "worst_return": -0.137324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01844, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060877, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.258004, "worst_return": -0.200326, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.19774, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.111276, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.020367, "worst_return": -0.283212, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041594, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067496, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"direction": -62.874576, "energy": 60.811791, "activity_lines": [ 4.189333, 4.275455, 4.838381, 5.304129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.88, "volume": 24227700, "typical_volume": 26712280.0, "trend": 5.640667, "fair_value": 5.952756, "relative_strength": -28.392568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.302297, "energy": 59.00651, "activity_lines": [ 4.109333, 4.180545, 4.68781, 5.187032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.3, "volume": 21473162, "typical_volume": 25704506.5, "trend": 5.606333, "fair_value": 5.930256, "relative_strength": -20.494882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.784596, "energy": 48.883405, "activity_lines": [ 4.178667, 4.176182, 4.593, 5.100538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.23, "volume": 18966378, "typical_volume": 25015937.8, "trend": 5.572333, "fair_value": 5.906795, "relative_strength": -23.407242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.335725, "energy": 48.218179, "activity_lines": [ 4.188667, 4.170182, 4.504429, 5.011742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }