{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab1d0a04-b04c-4f80-a56a-8350e72e60e0", "symbol": "GBE3", "name": "WisdomTree Short GBP Long EUR 3x Daily", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.578, "architecture_energy": 67.162, "architecture_maturity": 79.412, "architecture_confidence": 80.724, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.87, "rotation_up": 12.89, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.1, "rotation_down": 70.22, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.716533, 15.837564, 16.155886, 16.347604 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.84, "trend_reference": 16.573133, "distance_from_trend": -0.044236, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.326491, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.085793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.302717, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059494, "excess_performance": -0.230386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044236, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029392, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.085793, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044422, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203027, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059494, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.224124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 747, "relative_activity": 1.319671, "balance": 0.224124, "dry_up": 3.324353, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012315, "annualized_volatility": 0.102565, "from_high_reference": -0.121464, "from_low_reference": 0.028705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.573133, "fair_value_reference": 17.326491, "structural_low": 15.398, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.003087, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.033373, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.074529, "worst_return": -0.067353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.024299, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.060079, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.053743, "worst_return": -0.066049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.021252, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.091907, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.045106, "worst_return": -0.113574, "sufficient": true 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062229, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037365, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073103, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01275, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", 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"typical_volume": 244.75, "trend": 16.797133, "fair_value": 17.408581, "relative_strength": -21.613138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.082498, "energy": 99.146084, "activity_lines": [ 16.012533, 16.241345, 16.480428, 16.612787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.398, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": 569.75, "trend": 16.724066, "fair_value": 17.387889, "relative_strength": -21.419728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.532482, "energy": 99.46065, "activity_lines": [ 15.755333, 16.056909, 16.362247, 16.52252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.724, "volume": 280, "typical_volume": 583.75, "trend": 16.6664, "fair_value": 17.368747, "relative_strength": -19.120273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.628113, "energy": 88.958306, "activity_lines": [ 15.682667, 15.957891, 16.283685, 16.458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.724, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 545.05, "trend": 16.608733, "fair_value": 17.347247, "relative_strength": -19.104088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.250492, "energy": 87.197302, "activity_lines": [ 15.6624, 15.880582, 16.212143, 16.3972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.84, "volume": 747, "typical_volume": 566.05, "trend": 16.573133, "fair_value": 17.326491, "relative_strength": -20.302717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.578151, "energy": 67.162035, "activity_lines": [ 15.716533, 15.837564, 16.155886, 16.347604 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }