{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab20354f-9da1-4d87-b158-c0f09eae84fd", "symbol": "KSM-F120", "name": "Ksm Mutual Funds Limited - KSM US BuyBack (PR) ILS (40a) Fund", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.804, "architecture_energy": 63.074, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.328, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.74, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.37, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 218.166667, 214.24, 5477.586667, 9301.082151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 222.5, "trend_reference": 13686.1, "distance_from_trend": -0.983743, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16476.237179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986496, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.800344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989125, "excess_performance": -1.030412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983743, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324666, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986496, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.175964, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.784695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.723656, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2044, "relative_activity": 1.806851, "balance": 10.723656, "dry_up": 1.021215, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.197649, "annualized_volatility": 6.356375, "from_high_reference": -0.98939, "from_low_reference": 0.091757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13686.1, "fair_value_reference": 16476.237179, "structural_low": 203.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.044985, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.008526, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.108749, "worst_return": -0.107299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109831, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.031468, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.187656, "worst_return": -0.141096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.089147, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.006966, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.239401, "worst_return": -0.143151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -67.332419, "energy": 88.563615, "activity_lines": [ 208.82, 3849.796364, 10245.960952, 13212.418925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 214.1, "volume": 310, "typical_volume": 985.25, "trend": 15711.246667, "fair_value": 16743.573077, "relative_strength": -98.924723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.994445, "energy": 82.521638, "activity_lines": [ 210.94, 2387.209091, 8906.240476, 12169.687097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 214.0, "volume": 286, "typical_volume": 943.6, "trend": 15042.046667, "fair_value": 16655.457692, "relative_strength": -98.927164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.639503, "energy": 67.567278, "activity_lines": [ 212.48, 1292.710909, 7664.824286, 11169.864731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 219.1, "volume": 1981, "typical_volume": 1040.6, "trend": 14365.683333, "fair_value": 16566.990385, "relative_strength": -98.844755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.237538, "energy": 66.933686, "activity_lines": [ 215.22, 571.067273, 6522.208095, 10213.545591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 222.5, "volume": 2044, "typical_volume": 1131.25, "trend": 13686.1, "fair_value": 16476.237179, "relative_strength": -98.800344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.804415, "energy": 63.074454, "activity_lines": [ 218.166667, 214.24, 5477.586667, 9301.082151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }