{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab238bbe-cd4c-4000-965c-f46601182b4b", "symbol": "GFMULTIO", "name": "Grupo Financiero Multiva, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.134, "architecture_energy": 64.235, "architecture_maturity": 62.297, "architecture_confidence": 68.268, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.0, "rotation_up": 45.11, "upward_expansion": 65.5, "deceleration": 74.0, "rotation_down": 30.0, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 8.0, 7.892857, 7.795699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.0, "trend_reference": 7.683333, "distance_from_trend": 0.041215, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.682692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041302, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.85055, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066667, "excess_performance": 0.121333, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041215, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022173, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066846, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028506, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129297, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 1.10644, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004808, "annualized_volatility": 0.089499, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.066667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.683333, "fair_value_reference": 7.682692, "structural_low": 7.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.0, "volume": 2131899, "typical_volume": 244089.55, "trend": 8.247, "fair_value": 8.693077, "relative_strength": -6.541271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.133789, "energy": 64.235081, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 8.0, 8.083571, 8.159355 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 8.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 244089.55, "trend": 8.234, "fair_value": 8.661667, "relative_strength": -6.232757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.794728, "energy": 63.413933, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 8.0, 8.066857, 8.143419 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 8.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 244089.55, "trend": 8.221, "fair_value": 8.630256, "relative_strength": -5.786403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.331599, "energy": 62.301175, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 8.0, 8.052, 8.128323 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 8.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { 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"direction": 67.333088, "energy": 88.564145, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 7.909091, 7.75, 7.677419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52278.05, "trend": 7.616667, "fair_value": 7.682692, "relative_strength": 2.761557, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.997197, "energy": 68.093185, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 7.945455, 7.783333, 7.703226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.0, "volume": 297119, "typical_volume": 67134.0, "trend": 7.633333, "fair_value": 7.682692, "relative_strength": 2.771704, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.64797, "energy": 67.587857, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 7.972727, 7.814286, 7.727957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 67134.0, "trend": 7.65, "fair_value": 7.682692, "relative_strength": 3.33588, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.260857, "energy": 66.99037, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 7.990909, 7.842857, 7.751613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 67134.0, "trend": 7.666667, "fair_value": 7.682692, "relative_strength": 2.689226, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.33674, "energy": 64.727983, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 8.0, 7.869048, 7.774194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 67134.0, "trend": 7.683333, "fair_value": 7.682692, "relative_strength": 2.85055, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.133789, "energy": 64.235081, "activity_lines": [ 8.0, 8.0, 7.892857, 7.795699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }