{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab23f8dd-09c6-4d6f-805c-ce27ff7ea530", "symbol": "MARA", "name": "MARA Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 62.828, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -11.276, "architecture_energy": 23.898, "architecture_maturity": 54.417, "architecture_confidence": 70.187, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.26, "rotation_up": 14.23, "upward_expansion": 41.98, "deceleration": 86.85, "rotation_down": 47.8, "downward_expansion": 35.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.789667, 10.4814, 10.73499, 10.180875 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.849, "trend_reference": 9.454833, "distance_from_trend": -0.064077, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.058237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.322343, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.484406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.401711, "excess_performance": 0.227464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064077, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.322343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095588, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.401711, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.570653, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1658, "relative_activity": 0.093463, "balance": 2.570653, "dry_up": 0.249865, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167537, "annualized_volatility": 0.761521, "from_high_reference": -0.556574, "from_low_reference": 0.521754 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.454833, "fair_value_reference": 13.058237, "structural_low": 6.131, "invalidation": "A 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[ 11.643467, 11.665455, 10.852362, 10.070862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.328, "volume": 12613, "typical_volume": 23040.7, "trend": 9.315733, "fair_value": 13.157521, "relative_strength": -30.724445, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.985081, "energy": 18.419901, "activity_lines": [ 10.7868, 11.263927, 10.795971, 10.073009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.088, "volume": 3120, "typical_volume": 21169.6, "trend": 9.4015, "fair_value": 13.135737, "relative_strength": -17.749196, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.121366, "energy": 24.124727, "activity_lines": [ 10.7196, 11.204, 10.899652, 10.187348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.905, "volume": 339, "typical_volume": 18790.15, "trend": 9.452833, "fair_value": 13.102083, "relative_strength": -25.517724, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.750775, "energy": 19.992678, "activity_lines": [ 10.342333, 10.919236, 10.871538, 10.219832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.849, "volume": 1658, "typical_volume": 17739.6, "trend": 9.454833, "fair_value": 13.058237, "relative_strength": -34.484406, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.276211, "energy": 23.898044, "activity_lines": [ 9.789667, 10.4814, 10.73499, 10.180875 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }