{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab2b5b50-abc1-4c97-9ff1-2302bd102151", "symbol": "SLQT", "name": "Selectquote Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.992, "architecture_energy": 58.151, "architecture_maturity": 23.099, "architecture_confidence": 87.969, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.45, "rotation_up": 11.13, "upward_expansion": 11.44, "deceleration": 39.11, "rotation_down": 69.06, "downward_expansion": 87.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.704033, 0.749911, 0.825631, 0.832163 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.6864, "trend_reference": 0.90166, "distance_from_trend": -0.238737, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.053845, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.665798, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.893197, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.376, "excess_performance": -0.501625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238737, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193763, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.665798, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190781, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.528932, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139303, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.376, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402037, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2371353, "relative_activity": 0.295086, "balance": 0.402037, "dry_up": 0.495748, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.240586, "annualized_volatility": 0.817403, "from_high_reference": -0.752202, "from_low_reference": 0.219616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.90166, "fair_value_reference": 2.053845, "structural_low": 0.5628, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.013793, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.037343, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.708359, "worst_return": -0.59134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.029545, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.090556, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.574055, "worst_return": -0.677802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.367482, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.449253, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.63274, "worst_return": -0.778534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.182213, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047353, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 1.251969, "worst_return": -0.926735, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.284314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.212838, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.481081, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122642, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.220408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070234, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.475248, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155452, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.7179, "volume": 4701080, "typical_volume": 8748247.8, "trend": 0.97038, "fair_value": 2.07315, "relative_strength": -51.851015, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.029871, "energy": 42.421386, "activity_lines": [ 0.778393, 0.840185, 0.863622, 0.88143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.645, "volume": 4371606, "typical_volume": 8482554.05, "trend": 0.946213, "fair_value": 2.065874, "relative_strength": -55.503526, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.431163, "energy": 58.378867, "activity_lines": [ 0.720707, 0.793627, 0.84621, 0.860438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.747, "volume": 4491570, "typical_volume": 8290510.95, "trend": 0.925447, "fair_value": 2.059637, "relative_strength": -48.094646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.007177, "energy": 52.375546, "activity_lines": [ 0.719913, 0.774978, 0.839037, 0.847586 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6864, "volume": 2371353, "typical_volume": 8036149.4, "trend": 0.90166, "fair_value": 2.053845, "relative_strength": -52.893197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.991505, "energy": 58.151481, "activity_lines": [ 0.704033, 0.749911, 0.825631, 0.832163 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }