{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab2f8dc7-f8b0-499c-ada6-6dff1bb79409", "symbol": "AXITA", "name": "Axita Cotton Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.851, "architecture_energy": 79.876, "architecture_maturity": 42.635, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.77, "rotation_up": 24.33, "upward_expansion": 19.22, "deceleration": 38.25, "rotation_down": 64.95, "downward_expansion": 97.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.343333, 7.431273, 7.672333, 7.939196 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 7.3, "trend_reference": 8.283454, "distance_from_trend": -0.118725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.543561, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.367613, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.501216, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.224903, "excess_performance": -0.181194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071661, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.367613, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047355, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111827, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224903, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.18398, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6999705, "relative_activity": 4.194814, "balance": 0.18398, "dry_up": 1.848006, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040042, "annualized_volatility": 0.313132, "from_high_reference": -0.401639, "from_low_reference": 0.005006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.283454, "fair_value_reference": 11.543561, "structural_low": 7.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.023795, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.033738, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.235657, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.062749, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.104123, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.117717, "worst_return": -0.240278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.15522, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.196749, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.064822, "worst_return": -0.31295, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1612564.15, "trend": 8.601091, "fair_value": 11.661204, "relative_strength": -10.82548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.04431, "energy": 71.563548, "activity_lines": [ 7.494667, 7.611091, 7.890619, 8.158966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.36, "volume": 1741163, "typical_volume": 1593613.85, "trend": 8.448545, "fair_value": 11.620415, "relative_strength": -9.090929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.861743, "energy": 78.1421, "activity_lines": [ 7.436, 7.548364, 7.813714, 8.078895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.32, "volume": 2407425, "typical_volume": 1617000.8, "trend": 8.336788, "fair_value": 11.582621, "relative_strength": -11.744689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.837503, "energy": 79.743189, "activity_lines": [ 7.384667, 7.487636, 7.740095, 8.006086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.3, "volume": 6999705, "typical_volume": 1668656.95, "trend": 8.283454, "fair_value": 11.543561, "relative_strength": -12.501216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.850805, "energy": 79.87576, "activity_lines": [ 7.343333, 7.431273, 7.672333, 7.939196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }