{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab349a19-4487-4534-b7c0-8e60e5809f11", "symbol": "STPL", "name": "BMO Global Consumer Staples Hedged to CAD Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.826, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.382, "architecture_energy": 44.592, "architecture_maturity": 12.946, "architecture_confidence": 66.436, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.81, "rotation_up": 63.86, "upward_expansion": 80.96, "deceleration": 54.4, "rotation_down": 15.63, "downward_expansion": 5.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.654667, 25.517345, 25.128892, 25.016258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.68, "trend_reference": 24.943255, "distance_from_trend": 0.029537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.501917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092677, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.104437, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.004922, "excess_performance": -0.125344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029537, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017795, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.092677, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052257, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071044, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047566, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004922, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.035714, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21500, "relative_activity": 1.346274, "balance": 1.035714, "dry_up": 1.147464, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025597, "annualized_volatility": 0.142154, "from_high_reference": -0.037201, "from_low_reference": 0.106353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.943255, "fair_value_reference": 23.501917, "structural_low": 23.51, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.004044, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.014177, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.033489, "worst_return": -0.061249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.011651, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.012486, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.062969, "worst_return": -0.060751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004333, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.022047, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.085044, "worst_return": -0.091607, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.469999, "volume": 14300, "typical_volume": 16490.0, "trend": 24.807004, "fair_value": 23.462712, "relative_strength": -5.96336, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.228003, "energy": 66.845791, "activity_lines": [ 25.5582, 25.295212, 24.936416, 24.900971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.790001, "volume": 17500, "typical_volume": 16340.0, "trend": 24.876051, "fair_value": 23.482637, "relative_strength": -4.041423, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.596068, "energy": 52.685062, "activity_lines": [ 25.638, 25.425042, 25.039604, 24.96439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.68, "volume": 21500, "typical_volume": 15970.0, "trend": 24.943255, "fair_value": 23.501917, "relative_strength": -7.104437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.382004, "energy": 44.591584, "activity_lines": [ 25.654667, 25.517345, 25.128892, 25.016258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }