{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab3557dd-4f4e-4748-a265-c2fd57bb1f56", "symbol": "PRIN", "name": "Prinsiri Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.037, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.605, "architecture_energy": 16.864, "architecture_maturity": 18.742, "architecture_confidence": 67.166, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.01, "rotation_up": 34.4, "upward_expansion": 31.49, "deceleration": 43.61, "rotation_down": 27.21, "downward_expansion": 44.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.397333, 1.388545, 1.381476, 1.385505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.36, "trend_reference": 1.401333, "distance_from_trend": -0.029496, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.036667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.332242, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.812724, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093333, "excess_performance": -0.285658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029496, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040621, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.332242, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018692, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198127, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003286, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.119099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13800, "relative_activity": 0.900196, "balance": 2.119099, "dry_up": 1.474234, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048077, "annualized_volatility": 0.165236, "from_high_reference": -0.227273, "from_low_reference": 0.022556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.401333, "fair_value_reference": 2.036667, "structural_low": 1.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.006667, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.011252, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.137681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.028369, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047308, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.06087, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057926, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.053013, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095652, "worst_return": -0.113475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.065273, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.185909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.362284, "worst_return": -0.390071, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013793, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.148936, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.370833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006623, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062069, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062069, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.76, "volume": 170700, "typical_volume": 385920.0, "trend": 2.785014, "fair_value": 2.356966, "relative_strength": 3.798442, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.417254, "energy": 9.415773, "activity_lines": [ 2.729333, 2.696364, 2.677524, 2.726243 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 2.76, "volume": 87100, "typical_volume": 389450.0, "trend": 2.781765, "fair_value": 2.365621, "relative_strength": 1.082359, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.037625, "energy": 9.925077, "activity_lines": [ 2.744, 2.713455, 2.681238, 2.724629 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 2.74, "volume": 264400, "typical_volume": 402310.0, "trend": 2.777207, "fair_value": 2.373856, "relative_strength": 0.430829, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.76001, "energy": 9.319771, "activity_lines": [ 2.745333, 2.723636, 2.684476, 2.721935 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 2.82, "volume": 172900, "typical_volume": 406135.0, "trend": 2.774671, "fair_value": 2.382603, "relative_strength": 4.372027, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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16.231646, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.531951, "energy": 56.734804, "activity_lines": [ 2.9, 2.839273, 2.762, 2.751725 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 2.94, "volume": 49300, "typical_volume": 384425.0, "trend": 2.774, "fair_value": 2.419516, "relative_strength": 16.172667, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.6391, "energy": 57.054314, "activity_lines": [ 2.926667, 2.865091, 2.784476, 2.76228 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 2.96, "volume": 26900, "typical_volume": 383580.0, "trend": 2.778667, "fair_value": 2.428928, "relative_strength": 15.69068, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.102368, "energy": 62.609357, "activity_lines": [ 2.946667, 2.890182, 2.807429, 2.77428 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 2.9, "volume": 70200, "typical_volume": 384600.0, "trend": 2.776, 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"typical_volume": 58120.0, "trend": 1.443, "fair_value": 2.094423, "relative_strength": -22.474712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.390698, "energy": 47.687567, "activity_lines": [ 1.358, 1.365818, 1.376143, 1.402753 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.39, "volume": 100100, "typical_volume": 61825.0, "trend": 1.439333, "fair_value": 2.086538, "relative_strength": -17.926133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.161465, "energy": 29.761655, "activity_lines": [ 1.368, 1.368909, 1.375952, 1.399333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.34, "volume": 23700, "typical_volume": 54665.0, "trend": 1.434, "fair_value": 2.078205, "relative_strength": -23.584241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.491021, "energy": 36.977819, "activity_lines": [ 1.360667, 1.362909, 1.371524, 1.392925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.37, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 47415.0, "trend": 1.429667, "fair_value": 2.069936, "relative_strength": -21.685928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.87446, "energy": 27.939885, "activity_lines": [ 1.362667, 1.363273, 1.370619, 1.388796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.42, "volume": 31300, "typical_volume": 43860.0, "trend": 1.427667, "fair_value": 2.061987, "relative_strength": -19.150856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.947288, "energy": 10.49717, "activity_lines": [ 1.382, 1.373091, 1.374857, 1.388172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.45, "volume": 44100, "typical_volume": 16435.0, "trend": 1.417667, "fair_value": 2.053974, "relative_strength": -17.156126, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.633293, "energy": 13.150017, "activity_lines": [ 1.407333, 1.387818, 1.381857, 1.389613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.4, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 14685.0, "trend": 1.406, "fair_value": 2.045256, "relative_strength": -18.541537, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.958438, "energy": 18.51263, "activity_lines": [ 1.409333, 1.392, 1.383667, 1.388473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.36, "volume": 13800, "typical_volume": 15330.0, "trend": 1.401333, "fair_value": 2.036667, "relative_strength": -19.812724, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.605082, "energy": 16.863817, "activity_lines": [ 1.397333, 1.388545, 1.381476, 1.385505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }