{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab35d149-d4fc-4479-9a5d-b7121fea44c3", "symbol": "RCKY", "name": "Rocky Brands Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.673, "architecture_energy": 78.404, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.133, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.53, "rotation_up": 73.77, "upward_expansion": 87.6, "deceleration": 47.74, "rotation_down": 9.08, "downward_expansion": 16.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.644, 43.480727, 41.350177, 40.616865 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.23, "trend_reference": 39.134003, "distance_from_trend": 0.257985, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.625101, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.782075, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.388272, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.488075, "excess_performance": 0.300622, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.257985, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.782075, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.342045, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.243883, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.214797, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.488075, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.165047, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 375567, "relative_activity": 1.234337, "balance": 1.165047, "dry_up": 1.222799, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078064, "annualized_volatility": 0.609216, "from_high_reference": -0.071307, "from_low_reference": 0.945888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.134003, "fair_value_reference": 27.625101, "structural_low": 31.852558, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007305, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.029741, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.317328, "worst_return": -0.200946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021907, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.156044, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.393299, "worst_return": -0.299542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.231603, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.046579, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.529028, "worst_return": -0.413796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-31", "close": 48.84, "volume": 645921, "typical_volume": 299846.9, "trend": 38.499518, "fair_value": 27.424643, "relative_strength": 30.721341, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.350173, "energy": 65.540536, "activity_lines": [ 43.272, 41.976422, 40.459282, 39.924575 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.23, "volume": 375567, "typical_volume": 304266.15, "trend": 39.134003, "fair_value": 27.625101, "relative_strength": 24.388272, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.673006, "energy": 78.403757, "activity_lines": [ 45.644, 43.480727, 41.350177, 40.616865 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }