{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab3c9817-373a-46c8-80c1-227f005653b7", "symbol": "SVED-B", "name": "Svedbergs Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.338, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.171, "architecture_energy": 66.047, "architecture_maturity": 9.574, "architecture_confidence": 77.857, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.81, "rotation_up": 11.3, "upward_expansion": 16.44, "deceleration": 34.75, "rotation_down": 68.74, "downward_expansion": 85.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.44, 60.48, 61.359414, 62.270592 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 59.5, "trend_reference": 63.955953, "distance_from_trend": -0.069672, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.092566, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263469, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.900081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.170112, "excess_performance": -0.231606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069672, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006875, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263469, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03121, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016951, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170112, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.290799, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162359, "relative_activity": 0.503261, "balance": 2.290799, "dry_up": 0.807436, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067873, "annualized_volatility": 0.315144, "from_high_reference": -0.217289, "from_low_reference": 0.17554 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.955953, "fair_value_reference": 47.092566, "structural_low": 53.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.034413, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.026002, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.221053, "worst_return": -0.299566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02319, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035305, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.214286, "worst_return": -0.312299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.153176, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.138587, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.321654, "worst_return": -0.371123, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 58.0, "volume": 560563, "typical_volume": 337086.45, "trend": 64.949346, "fair_value": 46.514359, "relative_strength": -12.473574, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.611275, "energy": 25.611976, "activity_lines": [ 62.300001, 63.476364, 62.653019, 63.576594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.5, "volume": 167713, "typical_volume": 329990.75, "trend": 64.619584, "fair_value": 46.69628, "relative_strength": -15.854085, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.310031, "energy": 53.199034, "activity_lines": [ 60.093334, 62.176364, 62.043334, 63.031475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.599998, "volume": 151325, "typical_volume": 325507.45, "trend": 64.274108, "fair_value": 46.883711, "relative_strength": -15.202412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.736976, "energy": 65.770641, "activity_lines": [ 58.713333, 61.110909, 61.589261, 62.578599 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.5, "volume": 162359, "typical_volume": 322613.65, "trend": 63.955953, "fair_value": 47.092566, "relative_strength": -13.900081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.171476, "energy": 66.046689, "activity_lines": [ 58.44, 60.48, 61.359414, 62.270592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }