{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab44e339-f53c-4193-926d-ae733ff57531", "symbol": "XIPI", "name": "Premier ETF PEFINDO i-Grade", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.965, "architecture_energy": 20.256, "architecture_maturity": 90.339, "architecture_confidence": 64.699, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.06, "rotation_up": 31.01, "upward_expansion": 17.72, "deceleration": 46.08, "rotation_down": 25.66, "downward_expansion": 56.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 176.333333, 172.854545, 174.780952, 180.610753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 178.0, "trend_reference": 190.6, "distance_from_trend": -0.066107, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 221.955128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.198036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.444118, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.168224, "excess_performance": 0.024032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066107, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.198036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024441, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006847, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.168224, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.02022, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3800, "relative_activity": 0.008795, "balance": 0.02022, "dry_up": 0.082168, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087295, "annualized_volatility": 0.338563, "from_high_reference": -0.258333, "from_low_reference": 0.148387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 190.6, "fair_value_reference": 221.955128, "structural_low": 155.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.018987, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.001607, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.147541, "worst_return": -0.193878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02459, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.033663, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.140127, "worst_return": -0.154185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027273, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010943, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.171975, "worst_return": -0.098361, "sufficient": false }, { 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-44.485899, "energy": 32.096743, "activity_lines": [ 169.266667, 169.090909, 175.971429, 183.873118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 179.0, "volume": 120700, "typical_volume": 433515.0, "trend": 193.966667, "fair_value": 222.621795, "relative_strength": 6.439626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.913958, "energy": 24.166815, "activity_lines": [ 172.666667, 170.654545, 175.657143, 182.812903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 174.0, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 432095.0, "trend": 192.166667, "fair_value": 222.288462, "relative_strength": 2.872455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.007548, "energy": 18.968212, "activity_lines": [ 174.133333, 171.418182, 174.985714, 181.524731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 178.0, "volume": 3800, "typical_volume": 432040.0, "trend": 190.6, "fair_value": 221.955128, "relative_strength": 2.444118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.965071, "energy": 20.255631, "activity_lines": [ 176.333333, 172.854545, 174.780952, 180.610753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }