{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab4d2116-00bb-4de1-8729-0ed017475363", "symbol": "ABM", "name": "ABM Industries Incorporated", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.218, "architecture_energy": 77.548, "architecture_maturity": 14.499, "architecture_confidence": 74.743, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.33, "rotation_up": 76.84, "upward_expansion": 92.93, "deceleration": 42.93, "rotation_down": 10.42, "downward_expansion": 17.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.817333, 46.65763, 44.383487, 43.36726 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.54, "trend_reference": 42.908996, "distance_from_trend": 0.131231, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.162839, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074777, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.640962, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.02825, "excess_performance": -0.097375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131231, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185481, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00641, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192573, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02825, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.834264, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2072647, "relative_activity": 0.804694, "balance": 2.834264, "dry_up": 0.853137, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055674, "annualized_volatility": 0.307619, "from_high_reference": -0.025301, "from_low_reference": 0.323076 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.908996, "fair_value_reference": 45.162839, "structural_low": 36.687225, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010199, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.018465, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.094139, "worst_return": -0.151102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033006, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.077355, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.125142, "worst_return": -0.194089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.036938, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.075547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172366, "worst_return": -0.211619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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44.424737, 42.547674, 42.304888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.72, "volume": 1838862, "typical_volume": 2838302.5, "trend": 42.565743, "fair_value": 45.097735, "relative_strength": 1.604303, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.99948, "energy": 70.128583, "activity_lines": [ 46.428939, 45.260393, 43.155866, 42.64956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.91, "volume": 2431608, "typical_volume": 2722326.1, "trend": 42.759902, "fair_value": 45.129987, "relative_strength": 1.158827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.226857, "energy": 71.798577, "activity_lines": [ 47.109333, 45.974298, 43.762125, 42.994351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.54, "volume": 2072647, "typical_volume": 2575695.8, "trend": 42.908996, "fair_value": 45.162839, "relative_strength": -0.640962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.217918, "energy": 77.547929, "activity_lines": [ 47.817333, 46.65763, 44.383487, 43.36726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }