{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab4e733f-93bd-49d8-96a4-764707bc9a81", "symbol": "603861", "name": "Guangzhou Baiyun Electric Equipment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.205, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.267, "architecture_energy": 65.14, "architecture_maturity": 20.712, "architecture_confidence": 81.203, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.22, "rotation_up": 12.55, "upward_expansion": 13.83, "deceleration": 39.92, "rotation_down": 67.57, "downward_expansion": 87.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.859909, 12.536688, 14.002972, 14.81555 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.27, "trend_reference": 15.509954, "distance_from_trend": -0.208895, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.441301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.838762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.261733, "excess_performance": -0.218529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.208895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029035, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.175141, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.493773, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324877, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261733, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.940647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56413728, "relative_activity": 0.740227, "balance": 2.940647, "dry_up": 0.907608, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178331, "annualized_volatility": 0.567137, "from_high_reference": -0.457799, "from_low_reference": 0.279662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.509954, "fair_value_reference": 10.441301, "structural_low": 10.190852, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0323, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.011302, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.146012, "worst_return": -0.114387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.032134, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010723, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.16623, "worst_return": -0.088753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.089659, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.055069, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.275362, "worst_return": -0.12099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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84864931.6, "trend": 15.526954, "fair_value": 10.40466, "relative_strength": -12.51525, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.262767, "energy": 78.098969, "activity_lines": [ 11.967463, 13.324639, 14.629483, 15.266748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.77, "volume": 62028397, "typical_volume": 79372440.8, "trend": 15.506621, "fair_value": 10.420097, "relative_strength": -10.896764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.36978, "energy": 73.012241, "activity_lines": [ 11.750887, 12.846482, 14.276109, 15.024364 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.27, "volume": 56413728, "typical_volume": 76211404.25, "trend": 15.509954, "fair_value": 10.441301, "relative_strength": -9.838762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.267109, "energy": 65.140436, "activity_lines": [ 11.859909, 12.536688, 14.002972, 14.81555 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }