{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab5185ce-0bb5-4f0a-bf88-ed39e302f950", "symbol": "CRS", "name": "Crystal Amber Fund Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.557, "architecture_energy": 75.295, "architecture_maturity": 80.587, "architecture_confidence": 81.317, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.28, "rotation_up": 11.72, "upward_expansion": 15.38, "deceleration": 43.91, "rotation_down": 80.13, "downward_expansion": 93.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.896, 0.9225, 0.959131, 0.991769 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.885, "trend_reference": 1.05025, "distance_from_trend": -0.157343, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.058317, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.163767, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.570275, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.289157, "excess_performance": -0.340392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157343, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08951, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.163767, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.325703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.321148, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116442, "relative_activity": 0.59717, "balance": 0.321148, "dry_up": 1.023425, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048963, "annualized_volatility": 0.19362, "from_high_reference": -0.43048, "from_low_reference": 0.02907 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.05025, "fair_value_reference": 1.058317, "structural_low": 0.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.003553, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.113923, "worst_return": -0.179895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.053887, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.095445, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.141402, "worst_return": -0.164895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.102222, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.149295, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.11465, "worst_return": -0.209896, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.11931, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.130613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.11931, "worst_return": -0.11931, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037879, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023622, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006494, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185811, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.202247, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058537, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064655, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"close": 0.9, "volume": 342590, "typical_volume": 205287.2, "trend": 1.08675, "fair_value": 1.051811, "relative_strength": -32.581998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.040428, "energy": 89.196298, "activity_lines": [ 0.953667, 0.981591, 0.999298, 1.037285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.91, "volume": 142074, "typical_volume": 205069.25, "trend": 1.079583, "fair_value": 1.053478, "relative_strength": -31.60093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.717658, "energy": 90.524923, "activity_lines": [ 0.931833, 0.966182, 0.988476, 1.025882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.905, "volume": 283945, "typical_volume": 214620.8, "trend": 1.07225, "fair_value": 1.055112, "relative_strength": -31.932362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.255502, "energy": 90.391524, "activity_lines": [ 0.916667, 0.951773, 0.978679, 1.014618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.895, "volume": 255769, "typical_volume": 208136.3, "trend": 1.061917, "fair_value": 1.056747, "relative_strength": -32.562396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.002555, "energy": 88.14039, "activity_lines": [ 0.905167, 0.937273, 0.968976, 1.003183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.885, "volume": 116442, "typical_volume": 194989.8, "trend": 1.05025, "fair_value": 1.058317, "relative_strength": -32.570275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.556673, "energy": 75.295411, "activity_lines": [ 0.896, 0.9225, 0.959131, 0.991769 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }