{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab5367ad-7b20-44af-a469-3315f5b38b01", "symbol": "6536", "name": "Sofone Technology Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.135, "architecture_energy": 57.767, "architecture_maturity": 14.711, "architecture_confidence": 78.739, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.15, "rotation_up": 15.57, "upward_expansion": 27.81, "deceleration": 49.17, "rotation_down": 68.93, "downward_expansion": 57.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.493333, 18.433636, 20.333809, 20.056989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.549999, "trend_reference": 19.108333, "distance_from_trend": -0.133886, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.510897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193112, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.591901, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.05414, "excess_performance": -0.387232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133886, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053962, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193112, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.585251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.345919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.423203, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05414, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.315529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72482, "relative_activity": 0.288928, "balance": 0.315529, "dry_up": 0.174399, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15036, "annualized_volatility": 1.557356, "from_high_reference": -0.724167, "from_low_reference": 0.379167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.108333, "fair_value_reference": 20.510897, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.1, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.098376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171717, "worst_return": -0.13986, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.247475, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.332433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.122378, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.156132, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.553846, "worst_return": -0.128788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012626, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046332, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.299595, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118457, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.45339, "energy": 9.072326, "activity_lines": [ 19.813333, 20.545454, 21.564524, 20.388279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.299999, "volume": 48159, "typical_volume": 251027.5, "trend": 18.863333, "fair_value": 20.555769, "relative_strength": -26.852834, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.272464, "energy": 23.476226, "activity_lines": [ 19.253333, 19.923636, 21.347619, 20.356881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.4, "volume": 13276, "typical_volume": 249437.75, "trend": 18.966666, "fair_value": 20.549359, "relative_strength": -24.671698, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.185156, "energy": 37.441294, "activity_lines": [ 18.85, 19.506363, 21.123333, 20.326989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.299999, "volume": 41086, "typical_volume": 248268.9, "trend": 19.068333, "fair_value": 20.535256, "relative_strength": -30.051411, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.801148, "energy": 46.078123, "activity_lines": [ 18.189999, 18.997272, 20.773571, 20.219462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.549999, "volume": 72482, "typical_volume": 250865.4, "trend": 19.108333, "fair_value": 20.510897, "relative_strength": -34.591901, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.135169, "energy": 57.767212, "activity_lines": [ 17.493333, 18.433636, 20.333809, 20.056989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }