{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab57fa92-8509-412f-b619-9b1ccb4ae313", "symbol": "PCM", "name": "PCM Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.009, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.091, "architecture_energy": 11.563, "architecture_maturity": 12.169, "architecture_confidence": 67.46, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.5, "rotation_up": 39.41, "upward_expansion": 39.56, "deceleration": 39.87, "rotation_down": 28.25, "downward_expansion": 13.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.641735, 5.624848, 5.612617, 5.609988 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.68, "trend_reference": 5.625973, "distance_from_trend": 0.009603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.917142, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040077, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.413867, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006933, "excess_performance": -0.132558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009603, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007234, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040077, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006933, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.515484, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 376787, "relative_activity": 1.724172, "balance": 1.515484, "dry_up": 0.996302, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028774, "annualized_volatility": 0.137808, "from_high_reference": -0.074979, "from_low_reference": 0.064255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.625973, "fair_value_reference": 5.917142, "structural_low": 5.337065, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.013208, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.024152, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.054711, "worst_return": -0.171472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.010376, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.034713, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.103154, "worst_return": -0.152108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.036272, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.081663, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.045044, "worst_return": -0.133166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.026453, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.140958, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117282, "worst_return": -0.100472, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026731, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023297, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006212, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013203, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01118, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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5.60099, 5.59562, 5.611138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.63, "volume": 167943, "typical_volume": 219430.65, "trend": 5.633837, "fair_value": 5.940201, "relative_strength": -9.628853, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.978811, "energy": 12.544274, "activity_lines": [ 5.646765, 5.605178, 5.59922, 5.610775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.59, "volume": 203810, "typical_volume": 218761.55, "trend": 5.631345, "fair_value": 5.933678, "relative_strength": -9.468144, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.898875, "energy": 13.102975, "activity_lines": [ 5.641363, 5.605332, 5.599975, 5.607947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.61, "volume": 122356, "typical_volume": 210294.55, "trend": 5.627024, "fair_value": 5.924799, "relative_strength": -9.77349, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.734575, "energy": 9.413045, "activity_lines": [ 5.633916, 5.60886, 5.60329, 5.60657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.68, "volume": 376787, "typical_volume": 218532.15, "trend": 5.625973, "fair_value": 5.917142, "relative_strength": -11.413867, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.09089, "energy": 11.563048, "activity_lines": [ 5.641735, 5.624848, 5.612617, 5.609988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }