{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab5a8f3b-8d98-4e4d-9285-861b4de7352d", "symbol": "SCHF", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR INTL EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.755, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.368, "architecture_energy": 36.522, "architecture_maturity": 30.247, "architecture_confidence": 57.256, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.95, "rotation_up": 40.38, "upward_expansion": 72.82, "deceleration": 69.69, "rotation_down": 25.97, "downward_expansion": 4.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.570667, 27.505189, 27.277866, 26.887675 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.23, "trend_reference": 26.440591, "distance_from_trend": 0.067677, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.551545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.373619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.769929, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087023, "excess_performance": -0.038601, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067677, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049898, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.373619, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011568, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007699, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087023, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.047023, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34755893, "relative_activity": 0.829297, "balance": 2.047023, "dry_up": 0.930818, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031741, "annualized_volatility": 0.195156, "from_high_reference": -0.00353, "from_low_reference": 0.298473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.440591, "fair_value_reference": 20.551545, "structural_low": 23.86, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027484, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.005301, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.090109, "worst_return": -0.004762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073291, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.026014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142143, "worst_return": -0.023191, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.045296, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.072781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086743, "worst_return": 0.004687, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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57.799453, "energy": 48.234362, "activity_lines": [ 27.528359, 27.371513, 26.814621, 26.458468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.55, "volume": 39374146, "typical_volume": 48532296.1, "trend": 26.025591, "fair_value": 20.272683, "relative_strength": 1.163194, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.634942, "energy": 43.260602, "activity_lines": [ 27.568228, 27.435949, 26.925775, 26.565183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.01, "volume": 41963883, "typical_volume": 47611923.5, "trend": 26.131591, "fair_value": 20.338641, "relative_strength": 0.630429, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.842596, "energy": 27.936533, "activity_lines": [ 27.36801, 27.380936, 26.981833, 26.628693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.04, "volume": 32821670, "typical_volume": 45327104.4, "trend": 26.225924, "fair_value": 20.403997, "relative_strength": 1.23468, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.448032, "energy": 22.910957, "activity_lines": [ 27.215333, 27.334749, 27.040844, 26.6873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.43, "volume": 46501059, "typical_volume": 44181272.1, "trend": 26.328257, "fair_value": 20.475119, "relative_strength": 1.450525, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.516753, "energy": 22.053084, "activity_lines": [ 27.260667, 27.350368, 27.12795, 26.764982 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.23, "volume": 34755893, "typical_volume": 41910043.55, "trend": 26.440591, "fair_value": 20.551545, "relative_strength": 0.769929, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.368319, "energy": 36.521569, "activity_lines": [ 27.570667, 27.505189, 27.277866, 26.887675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }