{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab5d77fc-0cee-4b39-b473-803954950bed", "symbol": "TSLR", "name": "GRANITESHARES 2X LONG TSLA DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.845, "architecture_energy": 79.484, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.694, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.31, "rotation_up": 8.47, "upward_expansion": 18.05, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 78.96, "downward_expansion": 93.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.668667, 17.229455, 19.933429, 20.911204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.95, "trend_reference": 22.665667, "distance_from_trend": -0.384532, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.766428, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.387256, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.494656, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.464697, "excess_performance": -0.65215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.384532, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153635, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.387256, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.546258, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.524947, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.403815, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.464697, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.830252, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5870701, "relative_activity": 0.646693, "balance": 0.830252, "dry_up": 0.679132, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.298484, "annualized_volatility": 0.929313, "from_high_reference": -0.647193, "from_low_reference": 0.21199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.665667, "fair_value_reference": 22.766428, "structural_low": 11.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.06566, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.042082, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.014778, "worst_return": -0.179299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.633826, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.368606, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.634171, "worst_return": 0.016802, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.669951, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.306974, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.669951, "worst_return": 1.669951, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 13.95, "volume": 5870701, "typical_volume": 9078036.5, "trend": 22.665667, "fair_value": 22.766428, "relative_strength": -52.494656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.845186, "energy": 79.48371, "activity_lines": [ 14.668667, 17.229455, 19.933429, 20.911204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }