{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab6310d6-381b-4c7a-bbb3-83cd1e408a2f", "symbol": "301190", "name": "Jiujiang Shanshui Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.25, "architecture_energy": 39.526, "architecture_maturity": 67.638, "architecture_confidence": 56.436, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.98, "rotation_up": 25.85, "upward_expansion": 17.77, "deceleration": 66.87, "rotation_down": 42.14, "downward_expansion": 67.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.429573, 17.128228, 18.975134, 20.176244 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.200001, "trend_reference": 21.522185, "distance_from_trend": -0.107897, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.39198, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0099, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.519503, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.23506, "excess_performance": -0.242459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107897, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071399, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0099, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23506, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.923612, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49226282, "relative_activity": 2.689721, "balance": 1.923612, "dry_up": 2.622558, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119089, "annualized_volatility": 0.540982, "from_high_reference": -0.388924, "from_low_reference": 0.342657 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.522185, "fair_value_reference": 19.39198, "structural_low": 14.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.034136, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.028078, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.152091, "worst_return": -0.10029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048861, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.020273, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.141536, "worst_return": -0.001739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.161573, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.137746, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.076923, "worst_return": -0.239637, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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15.463592, "volume": 15433340, "typical_volume": 11993778.1, "trend": 22.068852, "fair_value": 19.425501, "relative_strength": -40.776623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.005453, "energy": 91.987068, "activity_lines": [ 16.563797, 18.49154, 20.532953, 21.403475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.52, "volume": 12978022, "typical_volume": 11863328.9, "trend": 21.847518, "fair_value": 19.401208, "relative_strength": -38.223947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.705777, "energy": 91.879434, "activity_lines": [ 15.706094, 17.448712, 19.833022, 20.916452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.98, "volume": 79009173, "typical_volume": 14593803.3, "trend": 21.716518, "fair_value": 19.395573, "relative_strength": -27.411707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.417247, "energy": 67.536581, "activity_lines": [ 15.964274, 17.043338, 19.424377, 20.602419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.5, "volume": 50774887, "typical_volume": 16411880.5, "trend": 21.589185, "fair_value": 19.390374, "relative_strength": -23.438236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.456636, "energy": 55.899422, "activity_lines": [ 16.46695, 16.873419, 19.102303, 20.330385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 49226282, "typical_volume": 18301634.65, "trend": 21.522185, "fair_value": 19.39198, "relative_strength": -19.519503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.250458, "energy": 39.52563, "activity_lines": [ 17.429573, 17.128228, 18.975134, 20.176244 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }