{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab645901-8fe6-4013-a501-8f5163fe449b", "symbol": "V3MA", "name": "Vanguard ESG Emerging Markets All Cap UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.87, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.399, "architecture_energy": 37.999, "architecture_maturity": 60.135, "architecture_confidence": 74.724, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.48, "rotation_up": 40.39, "upward_expansion": 66.75, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 27.17, "downward_expansion": 16.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.568133, 7.572709, 7.488752, 7.343095 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.737, "trend_reference": 7.174967, "distance_from_trend": 0.078333, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.024663, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284221, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.343394, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.138464, "excess_performance": 0.05558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284221, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006455, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013434, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090944, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138464, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62842, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6584, "relative_activity": 0.73822, "balance": 0.62842, "dry_up": 3.090259, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02588, "annualized_volatility": 0.174665, "from_high_reference": -0.007313, "from_low_reference": 0.251334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.174967, "fair_value_reference": 6.024663, "structural_low": 6.343, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026416, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.019667, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.089984, "worst_return": -0.126955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.053165, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.050922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.123142, "worst_return": -0.041166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.098684, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.077139, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13236, "worst_return": 0.064877, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.114509, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.123895, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114509, "worst_return": 0.114509, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021514, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009298, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020912, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043335, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118257, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052384, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028553, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041381, "active": false }, { "regime": 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81.479187, "activity_lines": [ 7.6446, 7.567382, 7.377195, 7.233875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.377, "volume": 66463, "typical_volume": 14468.65, "trend": 7.082333, "fair_value": 5.977875, "relative_strength": -1.918468, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.85375, "energy": 53.027496, "activity_lines": [ 7.561933, 7.544018, 7.395867, 7.254772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.505, "volume": 21121, "typical_volume": 8177.55, "trend": 7.115433, "fair_value": 5.99242, "relative_strength": -0.150649, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.004157, "energy": 42.236077, "activity_lines": [ 7.528733, 7.545091, 7.424605, 7.282041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.47, "volume": 16077, "typical_volume": 8665.65, "trend": 7.145233, "fair_value": 6.007343, "relative_strength": -0.759793, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.682519, "energy": 30.844571, "activity_lines": [ 7.503133, 7.535909, 7.445895, 7.304916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.737, "volume": 6584, "typical_volume": 8918.75, "trend": 7.174967, "fair_value": 6.024663, "relative_strength": 1.343394, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.399243, "energy": 37.999312, "activity_lines": [ 7.568133, 7.572709, 7.488752, 7.343095 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }