{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab662ee2-0789-4b3a-8807-4ca3bde94a08", "symbol": "8466", "name": "M.J. International Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.755, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.346, "architecture_energy": 19.616, "architecture_maturity": 26.462, "architecture_confidence": 62.117, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.74, "rotation_up": 19.65, "upward_expansion": 12.33, "deceleration": 62.91, "rotation_down": 34.81, "downward_expansion": 57.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.576667, 16.703636, 16.432857, 16.915269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.1, "trend_reference": 18.083333, "distance_from_trend": -0.109677, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.511518, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.546626, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -46.282085, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.278027, "excess_performance": -0.719399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109677, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094777, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.546626, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083431, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.462821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141694, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.820425, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 157000, "relative_activity": 0.323273, "balance": 2.820425, "dry_up": 0.444758, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089107, "annualized_volatility": 0.371137, "from_high_reference": -0.410256, "from_low_reference": 0.277778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.083333, "fair_value_reference": 35.511518, "structural_low": 12.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013889, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.022825, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.151972, "worst_return": -0.053763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025675, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027185, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12529, "worst_return": -0.137533, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048904, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.095619, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.343388, "worst_return": -0.10474, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014406, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069721, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"direction": -33.292989, "energy": 20.949607, "activity_lines": [ 16.803334, 16.332727, 16.496191, 17.523441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 309000, "typical_volume": 493482.1, "trend": 18.771667, "fair_value": 36.251439, "relative_strength": -44.199566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.14469, "energy": 17.571989, "activity_lines": [ 16.953334, 16.523637, 16.467619, 17.394301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.1, "volume": 351000, "typical_volume": 495482.05, "trend": 18.601667, "fair_value": 36.068454, "relative_strength": -43.859779, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.260962, "energy": 18.042783, "activity_lines": [ 17.096667, 16.716364, 16.479762, 17.286452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.799999, "volume": 257000, "typical_volume": 497417.95, "trend": 18.438333, "fair_value": 35.880602, "relative_strength": -42.981536, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.642842, "energy": 13.899655, "activity_lines": [ 17.036667, 16.797273, 16.479524, 17.170215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.65, "volume": 99000, "typical_volume": 495807.45, "trend": 18.263333, "fair_value": 35.696498, "relative_strength": -43.710088, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.978275, "energy": 9.721385, "activity_lines": [ 16.873333, 16.801818, 16.476905, 17.054839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.1, "volume": 157000, "typical_volume": 485656.9, "trend": 18.083333, "fair_value": 35.511518, "relative_strength": -46.282085, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.346096, "energy": 19.616469, "activity_lines": [ 16.576667, 16.703636, 16.432857, 16.915269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }