{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab6d7e94-5692-4e9c-a3aa-a25d0564eba0", "symbol": "JEF", "name": "Jefferies Financial Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.411, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.805, "architecture_energy": 33.84, "architecture_maturity": 19.605, "architecture_confidence": 63.961, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.76, "rotation_up": 47.11, "upward_expansion": 74.54, "deceleration": 60.32, "rotation_down": 20.97, "downward_expansion": 3.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.394, 55.016727, 53.971547, 51.986413 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 56.62, "trend_reference": 51.27884, "distance_from_trend": 0.104159, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.059821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.108895, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.57947, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024502, "excess_performance": -0.150127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104159, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019002, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.108895, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037115, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075795, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058881, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024502, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.487049, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9466125, "relative_activity": 0.876178, "balance": 1.487049, "dry_up": 0.875571, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092679, "annualized_volatility": 0.583656, "from_high_reference": -0.184487, "from_low_reference": 0.605877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.27884, "fair_value_reference": 51.059821, "structural_low": 35.258, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.073308, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.031896, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.19399, "worst_return": -0.211947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.106305, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004854, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.315912, "worst_return": -0.431291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012618, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.102789, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.488005, "worst_return": -0.247583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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52.09, "volume": 7294919, "typical_volume": 12836910.5, "trend": 52.13843, "fair_value": 50.488417, "relative_strength": -14.150071, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.397471, "energy": 10.630384, "activity_lines": [ 53.606, 54.426268, 51.691482, 51.035137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.87, "volume": 8848968, "typical_volume": 12378483.05, "trend": 51.933887, "fair_value": 50.623275, "relative_strength": -7.837844, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.839953, "energy": 16.329443, "activity_lines": [ 53.391333, 54.541457, 52.305873, 51.211368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.86, "volume": 8756230, "typical_volume": 11938776.95, "trend": 51.698007, "fair_value": 50.764008, "relative_strength": -5.320398, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.203967, "energy": 11.457057, "activity_lines": [ 53.959333, 54.794909, 52.963073, 51.464665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.6, "volume": 10766958, "typical_volume": 11068562.45, "trend": 51.434897, "fair_value": 50.90491, "relative_strength": -8.123514, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.674893, "energy": 21.375774, "activity_lines": [ 54.523333, 54.746, 53.415211, 51.651891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.62, "volume": 9466125, "typical_volume": 10803887.3, "trend": 51.27884, "fair_value": 51.059821, "relative_strength": -7.57947, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.805064, "energy": 33.839646, "activity_lines": [ 55.394, 55.016727, 53.971547, 51.986413 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }