{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab7354f8-bfd4-42d7-b2b1-d44d4962c6e4", "symbol": "EMIS", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Emerging SRI PAB UCITS ETF EUR Capitalisation", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.933, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.945, "architecture_energy": 24.4, "architecture_maturity": 63.799, "architecture_confidence": 85.756, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.14, "rotation_up": 26.05, "upward_expansion": 57.72, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 32.0, "downward_expansion": 19.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.166033, 17.348524, 17.199695, 16.836993 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.399, "trend_reference": 16.414367, "distance_from_trend": 0.059986, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.857148, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255597, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.810411, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100402, "excess_performance": 0.04709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059986, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054843, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255597, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038104, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09893, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100402, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.73916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65651, "relative_activity": 1.379198, "balance": 0.73916, "dry_up": 1.16938, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039591, "annualized_volatility": 0.216079, "from_high_reference": -0.048596, "from_low_reference": 0.240623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.414367, "fair_value_reference": 13.857148, "structural_low": 14.4726, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020781, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005112, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.108397, "worst_return": -0.050749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01753, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.029309, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.240141, "worst_return": -0.040552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083843, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.083968, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.241278, "worst_return": -0.020016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030861, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023826, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056248, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033966, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"trend": 16.349023, "fair_value": 13.824559, "relative_strength": 3.894405, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.019447, "energy": 22.966675, "activity_lines": [ 17.133193, 17.351147, 17.132341, 16.769252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.399, "volume": 65651, "typical_volume": 47600.85, "trend": 16.414367, "fair_value": 13.857148, "relative_strength": 3.810411, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.945069, "energy": 24.400016, "activity_lines": [ 17.166033, 17.348524, 17.199695, 16.836993 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }