{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab737c4e-245f-4e9a-a19c-f86b40bb4f4a", "symbol": "FSL", "name": "First Trust Senior Loan ETF (CAD-Hedged) Common", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.303, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.205, "architecture_energy": 10.755, "architecture_maturity": 8.831, "architecture_confidence": 52.125, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.63, "rotation_up": 33.96, "upward_expansion": 46.3, "deceleration": 68.2, "rotation_down": 28.82, "downward_expansion": 33.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.89065, 15.894775, 15.900423, 15.888204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.91, "trend_reference": 15.886889, "distance_from_trend": 0.001455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.263595, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.21144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003136, "excess_performance": -0.117286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001455, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001888, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042349, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016747, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003136, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.984848, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.984848, "dry_up": 0.279851, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005245, "annualized_volatility": 0.042373, "from_high_reference": -0.019467, "from_low_reference": 0.026197 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.886889, "fair_value_reference": 15.263595, "structural_low": 15.649209, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.000599, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.019161, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.01181, "worst_return": -0.045614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002313, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.038113, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.013964, "worst_return": -0.042195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.023206, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.023125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024674, "worst_return": -0.04365, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011436, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003379, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004391, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 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15.883255, 15.89345 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 15.909718, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3865.0, "trend": 15.914837, "fair_value": 15.16914, "relative_strength": -10.803891, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.436129, "energy": 11.638168, "activity_lines": [ 15.903096, 15.911567, 15.887477, 15.893109 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 15.790195, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3750.0, "trend": 15.906968, "fair_value": 15.182612, "relative_strength": -11.046881, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.730843, "energy": 33.071583, "activity_lines": [ 15.865237, 15.888176, 15.880453, 15.885068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.058893, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 3495.0, "trend": 15.909024, "fair_value": 15.197911, "relative_strength": -9.783663, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.649931, "energy": 19.923022, "activity_lines": [ 15.923593, 15.916013, 15.899352, 15.89487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.859899, "volume": 4400, "typical_volume": 3445.0, "trend": 15.905737, "fair_value": 15.211259, "relative_strength": -10.593984, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.692536, "energy": 2.807722, "activity_lines": [ 15.906998, 15.905877, 15.898448, 15.8917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.869848, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 3305.0, "trend": 15.901169, "fair_value": 15.224566, "relative_strength": -9.994097, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.027609, "energy": 14.540854, "activity_lines": [ 15.897042, 15.898457, 15.898585, 15.889385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.83005, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 3115.0, "trend": 15.894951, "fair_value": 15.236964, "relative_strength": -10.053185, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.06224, "energy": 19.213867, "activity_lines": [ 15.874488, 15.885603, 15.894023, 15.884796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.93, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 2990.0, "trend": 15.892227, "fair_value": 15.250422, "relative_strength": -8.654995, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.74276, "energy": 9.26202, "activity_lines": [ 15.890562, 15.892372, 15.898633, 15.887058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2680.0, "trend": 15.886889, "fair_value": 15.263595, "relative_strength": -11.21144, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.205403, "energy": 10.754797, "activity_lines": [ 15.89065, 15.894775, 15.900423, 15.888204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }