{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab76af3b-5268-4a13-b61e-98af5c05c714", "symbol": "ELS", "name": "Elsight Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.123, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.477, "architecture_energy": 20.488, "architecture_maturity": 65.444, "architecture_confidence": 72.521, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.0, "rotation_up": 25.91, "upward_expansion": 47.85, "deceleration": 78.97, "rotation_down": 40.14, "downward_expansion": 32.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.439333, 6.846909, 6.953571, 6.669161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.07, "trend_reference": 6.090333, "distance_from_trend": 0.160856, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.803141, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.920936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 53.396965, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.921196, "excess_performance": 0.85749, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.160856, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.350906, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.920936, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.527124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.53397, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.751055, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.921196, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618826, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7017499, "relative_activity": 0.945169, "balance": 0.618826, "dry_up": 1.027076, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168698, "annualized_volatility": 0.861203, "from_high_reference": -0.168235, "from_low_reference": 4.678715 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.090333, "fair_value_reference": 1.803141, "structural_low": 3.44, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.026671, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.011999, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.758355, "worst_return": -0.330144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.42745, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.418598, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.131086, "worst_return": 0.027027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027027, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.069572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.407186, "worst_return": -0.243902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.162162, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.03818, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162162, "worst_return": 0.162162, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.306452, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011494, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.183908, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067416, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012987, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.884298, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.598802, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.882736, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205251, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.190236, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.285, "volume": 50471, "typical_volume": 208015.0, "trend": 0.301833, "fair_value": 0.404894, "relative_strength": -12.397272, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.096955, 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6.547441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.66, "volume": 4448738, "typical_volume": 8015249.9, "trend": 5.809667, "fair_value": 1.689776, "relative_strength": 60.718181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.653787, "energy": 24.768893, "activity_lines": [ 7.308667, 7.413636, 7.127333, 6.610022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.94, "volume": 8184682, "typical_volume": 7991025.45, "trend": 5.900667, "fair_value": 1.725962, "relative_strength": 41.117313, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.731742, "energy": 12.173861, "activity_lines": [ 6.820667, 7.172545, 7.045952, 6.61843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.59, "volume": 10851588, "typical_volume": 8106372.2, "trend": 5.973, "fair_value": 1.759744, "relative_strength": 27.671656, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.43244, "energy": 18.124744, "activity_lines": [ 6.345333, 6.873455, 6.929048, 6.598387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.07, "volume": 7017499, "typical_volume": 7424595.75, "trend": 6.090333, "fair_value": 1.803141, "relative_strength": 53.396965, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.477406, "energy": 20.487643, "activity_lines": [ 6.439333, 6.846909, 6.953571, 6.669161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }