{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab82fe61-3052-4e61-9481-c56fe6c72826", "symbol": "603949", "name": "Xuelong Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.908, "architecture_energy": 75.38, "architecture_maturity": 39.5, "architecture_confidence": 84.44, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.71, "rotation_up": 13.87, "upward_expansion": 22.07, "deceleration": 31.51, "rotation_down": 71.61, "downward_expansion": 88.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.848667, 14.924909, 15.784881, 16.584439 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.23, "trend_reference": 17.649711, "distance_from_trend": -0.193755, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.521431, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.138694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.914985, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26209, "excess_performance": -0.218886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058089, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.138694, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.699463, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15386959, "relative_activity": 0.570996, "balance": 0.699463, "dry_up": 1.034215, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13377, "annualized_volatility": 0.73052, "from_high_reference": -0.407427, "from_low_reference": 0.22356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.649711, "fair_value_reference": 16.521431, "structural_low": 11.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.036455, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.041015, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.223105, "worst_return": -0.174673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032325, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008155, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.510776, "worst_return": -0.30278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.181966, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043264, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.719266, "worst_return": -0.331014, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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16.564605, "relative_strength": -25.706306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.030298, "energy": 27.106397, "activity_lines": [ 16.412666, 16.330394, 16.871504, 17.469676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.44, "volume": 27964636, "typical_volume": 31636812.55, "trend": 17.941881, "fair_value": 16.543982, "relative_strength": -30.514237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.484878, "energy": 50.069832, "activity_lines": [ 15.002, 15.601091, 16.389094, 17.102184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.48, "volume": 18507754, "typical_volume": 29013256.9, "trend": 17.79317, "fair_value": 16.530149, "relative_strength": -24.466691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.339669, "energy": 72.178533, "activity_lines": [ 14.177333, 15.160363, 16.031412, 16.814321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.23, "volume": 15386959, "typical_volume": 26947594.7, "trend": 17.649711, "fair_value": 16.521431, "relative_strength": -21.914985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.908457, "energy": 75.379977, "activity_lines": [ 13.848667, 14.924909, 15.784881, 16.584439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }