{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab8d3913-8bd1-406f-9ec0-ceee1154b06f", "symbol": "CRS", "name": "Carpenter Technology Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.993, "architecture_energy": 35.679, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.261, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.31, "rotation_up": 39.23, "upward_expansion": 67.12, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 26.61, "downward_expansion": 17.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 562.477333, 569.244, 531.623182, 496.795357 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 570.66, "trend_reference": 450.88833, "distance_from_trend": 0.265635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 218.917465, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.606736, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 34.990077, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.563711, "excess_performance": 0.438086, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.265635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216862, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.606736, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211803, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.349901, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121725, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.563711, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.248761, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3194256, "relative_activity": 0.886942, "balance": 2.248761, "dry_up": 1.001094, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104674, "annualized_volatility": 0.433198, "from_high_reference": -0.088381, "from_low_reference": 1.507511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 450.88833, "fair_value_reference": 218.917465, "structural_low": 351.03102, 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.348599, "energy": 64.094708, "activity_lines": [ 577.669333, 557.279091, 506.143301, 471.848183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 603.69, "volume": 2624058, "typical_volume": 3509819.3, "trend": 436.754221, "fair_value": 212.654605, "relative_strength": 52.780064, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.43636, "energy": 63.801151, "activity_lines": [ 584.774667, 571.241091, 519.292579, 483.198207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 519.66, "volume": 5641407, "typical_volume": 3589726.4, "trend": 442.809943, "fair_value": 215.62094, "relative_strength": 28.802391, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.634253, "energy": 40.517029, "activity_lines": [ 562.722, 566.383818, 523.406806, 488.546967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 570.66, "volume": 3194256, "typical_volume": 3601427.35, "trend": 450.88833, "fair_value": 218.917465, "relative_strength": 34.990077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.993267, "energy": 35.679091, "activity_lines": [ 562.477333, 569.244, 531.623182, 496.795357 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }