{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ab9bcfb5-1d15-4815-b90a-9ba1c58eddee", "symbol": "WAVE", "name": "Wavestone SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.517, "architecture_energy": 58.532, "architecture_maturity": 60.075, "architecture_confidence": 80.31, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 15.02, "upward_expansion": 9.04, "deceleration": 54.95, "rotation_down": 67.69, "downward_expansion": 82.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.20425, 36.77774, 39.798331, 41.911663 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.400002, "trend_reference": 45.422413, "distance_from_trend": -0.242665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 50.498955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.318798, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.96918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.348485, "excess_performance": -0.401796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.242665, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100695, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.318798, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174054, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.329692, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.348485, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.87255, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 315404, "relative_activity": 3.681478, "balance": 0.87255, "dry_up": 2.622883, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11768, "annualized_volatility": 0.4447, "from_high_reference": -0.467492, "from_low_reference": 0.207148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.422413, "fair_value_reference": 50.498955, "structural_low": 28.49693, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.030965, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.015877, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.240642, "worst_return": -0.126203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025075, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.017251, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.165776, "worst_return": -0.255069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033214, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.023505, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.107034, "sufficient": true 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.309075, "energy": 79.983837, "activity_lines": [ 38.230604, 39.814547, 42.197057, 44.227449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.357464, "volume": 101901, "typical_volume": 56288.85, "trend": 46.970855, "fair_value": 50.748413, "relative_strength": -23.99333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.895276, "energy": 61.353218, "activity_lines": [ 38.181879, 39.276482, 41.661491, 43.636171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.046721, "volume": 403095, "typical_volume": 72802.55, "trend": 46.205746, "fair_value": 50.619298, "relative_strength": -36.785091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.017041, "energy": 63.460921, "activity_lines": [ 36.122408, 37.693601, 40.579628, 42.673324 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.400002, "volume": 315404, "typical_volume": 85673.2, "trend": 45.422413, "fair_value": 50.498955, "relative_strength": -32.96918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.516997, "energy": 58.531518, "activity_lines": [ 35.20425, 36.77774, 39.798331, 41.911663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }