{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aba3d62b-6264-418a-8058-5f28a38a2079", "symbol": "XLYS", "name": "Invesco Consumer Discretionary S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.321, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.923, "architecture_energy": 23.524, "architecture_maturity": 21.191, "architecture_confidence": 77.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.79, "rotation_up": 34.21, "upward_expansion": 52.62, "deceleration": 83.45, "rotation_down": 34.61, "downward_expansion": 25.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 719.156002, 721.028366, 720.677142, 716.708427 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 739.900024, "trend_reference": 715.917662, "distance_from_trend": 0.033499, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 647.963292, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.141886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.124355, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.03539, "excess_performance": -0.135502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033499, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002211, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.141886, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009218, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121244, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025272, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03539, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.008828, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 864, "relative_activity": 0.624797, "balance": 2.008828, "dry_up": 0.666197, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028395, "annualized_volatility": 0.183232, "from_high_reference": -0.125769, "from_low_reference": 0.1195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 715.917662, "fair_value_reference": 647.963292, "structural_low": 660.919983, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.002593, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.003802, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.06801, "worst_return": -0.116602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.062448, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.028115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088788, "worst_return": -0.129918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.116139, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.046413, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.323239, "worst_return": -0.130521, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106655, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021816, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005918, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004583, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": 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"typical_volume": 1405.2, "trend": 716.554661, "fair_value": 646.626561, "relative_strength": -13.454966, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.51902, "energy": 15.982338, "activity_lines": [ 711.867993, 717.537997, 718.016996, 715.202275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 739.900024, "volume": 864, "typical_volume": 1382.85, "trend": 715.917662, "fair_value": 647.963292, "relative_strength": -12.124355, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.92272, "energy": 23.523786, "activity_lines": [ 719.156002, 721.028366, 720.677142, 716.708427 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }