{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aba50921-c2c8-41ec-a6a5-5867a2873163", "symbol": "CITY", "name": "City Steel Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 64.934, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 9.278, "architecture_energy": 11.921, "architecture_maturity": 27.906, "architecture_confidence": 43.495, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.4, "rotation_up": 33.76, "upward_expansion": 25.94, "deceleration": 49.67, "rotation_down": 22.61, "downward_expansion": 52.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.224, 1.204727, 1.199571, 1.224903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.32, "trend_reference": 1.284333, "distance_from_trend": 0.027771, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.781795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.259174, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.001378, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.114094, "excess_performance": -0.306419, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027771, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097447, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.259174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085455, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092284, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114094, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.634921, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98500, "relative_activity": 0.737193, "balance": 1.634921, "dry_up": 0.608652, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04021, "annualized_volatility": 0.294011, "from_high_reference": -0.245714, "from_low_reference": 0.178571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.284333, "fair_value_reference": 1.781795, "structural_low": 1.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.032355, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008609, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011561, "worst_return": -0.076271, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.051631, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.001473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.033898, "worst_return": -0.069364, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.140443, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.14604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.101695, "worst_return": -0.179191, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.135593, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058336, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.135593, "worst_return": -0.135593, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009346, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106796, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009259, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044643, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.174757, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00578, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042424, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044586, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.208054, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.98, "volume": 185400, "typical_volume": 106690.0, "trend": 2.043333, "fair_value": 2.305064, "relative_strength": -1.892345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.404632, "energy": 17.929723, "activity_lines": [ 1.977333, 1.976364, 1.978476, 2.005591 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1.99, "volume": 242600, "typical_volume": 113690.0, "trend": 2.039, "fair_value": 2.306154, "relative_strength": -3.754101, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.208258, "energy": 13.748339, "activity_lines": [ 1.980667, 1.979273, 1.978095, 2.002151 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 2.04, "volume": 319200, "typical_volume": 128975.0, "trend": 2.035667, "fair_value": 2.307756, "relative_strength": -1.223553, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.005115, "energy": 4.654286, "activity_lines": [ 2.0, 1.990727, 1.982905, 2.002215 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 2.36, "volume": 1052400, "typical_volume": 156315.0, "trend": 2.043667, "fair_value": 2.311154, "relative_strength": 15.123636, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.004082, "energy": 63.792419, "activity_lines": [ 2.122667, 2.059091, 2.018762, 2.02314 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 2.36, "volume": 2396900, "typical_volume": 257185.0, "trend": 2.052333, "fair_value": 2.314615, "relative_strength": 15.347962, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 60.495191, "energy": 80.506648, "activity_lines": [ 2.221333, 2.120545, 2.052905, 2.043548 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 2.26, "volume": 112000, "typical_volume": 262305.0, "trend": 2.056333, "fair_value": 2.317308, "relative_strength": 11.789274, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.242242, "energy": 84.952879, "activity_lines": [ 2.259333, 2.156364, 2.07581, 2.056946 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 2.14, "volume": 284200, "typical_volume": 272670.0, "trend": 2.056333, "fair_value": 2.319423, 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"close": 1.18, "volume": 379600, "typical_volume": 165000.0, "trend": 1.333667, "fair_value": 1.801538, "relative_strength": -32.767663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.737454, "energy": 42.539854, "activity_lines": [ 1.184, 1.187273, 1.200714, 1.251462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.16, "volume": 10300, "typical_volume": 147340.0, "trend": 1.319333, "fair_value": 1.796282, "relative_strength": -34.004041, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.420429, "energy": 45.085697, "activity_lines": [ 1.176, 1.181455, 1.193952, 1.240258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.18, "volume": 111700, "typical_volume": 135780.0, "trend": 1.306, "fair_value": 1.79109, "relative_strength": -32.493346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.286468, "energy": 42.851707, "activity_lines": [ 1.176, 1.180182, 1.190524, 1.231269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.18, "volume": 104800, "typical_volume": 132135.0, "trend": 1.292667, "fair_value": 1.785833, "relative_strength": -31.194531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.975745, "energy": 42.475135, "activity_lines": [ 1.176, 1.179636, 1.188238, 1.22314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.32, "volume": 98500, "typical_volume": 133615.0, "trend": 1.284333, "fair_value": 1.781795, "relative_strength": -22.001378, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.277884, "energy": 11.921126, "activity_lines": [ 1.224, 1.204727, 1.199571, 1.224903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }