{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aba54726-0e1b-467b-86cd-6197379adb42", "symbol": "KSM-F96", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (6A) Short TA-35 (2044)", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.368, "architecture_energy": 66.907, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.684, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.37, "rotation_up": 29.97, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 50.31, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.298667, 18.366364, 438.475952, 762.362903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.31, "trend_reference": 1150.212667, "distance_from_trend": -0.984081, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3913.816538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.995322, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.104344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990087, "excess_performance": -1.018987, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984081, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.383683, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.995322, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.991043, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.434027, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.990087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.89307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46292, "relative_activity": 0.18515, "balance": 3.89307, "dry_up": 0.365533, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.938579, "annualized_volatility": 6.272135, "from_high_reference": -0.994754, "from_low_reference": 0.088585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1150.212667, "fair_value_reference": 3913.816538, "structural_low": 16.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.034907, "positive_rate": 0.317073, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": -0.056317, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.131595, "worst_return": -0.98972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.08374, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.122045, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.084836, "worst_return": -0.320852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.146398, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.311696, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.116497, "worst_return": -0.455986, 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"activity_lines": [ 18.426, 105.693091, 617.272, 921.262624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.37, "volume": 241086, "typical_volume": 259778.3, "trend": 1215.435667, "fair_value": 3947.936346, "relative_strength": -99.135701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.788722, "energy": 67.586812, "activity_lines": [ 18.345333, 47.129455, 523.703905, 839.596817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.31, "volume": 46292, "typical_volume": 250024.55, "trend": 1150.212667, "fair_value": 3913.816538, "relative_strength": -99.104344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.367696, "energy": 66.90718, "activity_lines": [ 18.298667, 18.366364, 438.475952, 762.362903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }