{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abab2cea-8a87-4000-b63c-67df344357d6", "symbol": "V3V", "name": "FamiCord AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.073, "architecture_energy": 91.049, "architecture_maturity": 70.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.235, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 9.72, "upward_expansion": 21.35, "deceleration": 37.3, "rotation_down": 84.99, "downward_expansion": 99.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.891333, 3.146545, 3.531476, 3.864194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.79, "trend_reference": 4.331, "distance_from_trend": -0.355807, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.669615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.40252, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.611401, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.473585, "excess_performance": -0.538225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.355807, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155092, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.40252, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.486114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.473585, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.036316, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4491, "relative_activity": 0.618518, "balance": 0.036316, "dry_up": 0.483583, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094844, "annualized_volatility": 0.205591, "from_high_reference": -0.635294, "from_low_reference": 0.081395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.331, "fair_value_reference": 4.669615, "structural_low": 2.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.029126, "positive_rate": 0.341463, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.031941, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 0.207483, "worst_return": -0.260128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.101911, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.103777, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.257576, "worst_return": -0.324752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.121955, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.16064, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.165877, "worst_return": -0.310513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004505, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022422, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.009434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.140845, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.199187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008264, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057377, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.473585, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.22, "volume": 6963, "typical_volume": 8111.45, "trend": 6.107, "fair_value": 11.519936, "relative_strength": -29.714911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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-89.683961, "energy": 74.751598, "activity_lines": [ 3.544, 3.702545, 4.004857, 4.305742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.02, "volume": 1461, "typical_volume": 7886.4, "trend": 4.652, "fair_value": 4.713141, "relative_strength": -42.662093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.277203, "energy": 76.426137, "activity_lines": [ 3.339333, 3.557636, 3.883952, 4.194043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.82, "volume": 4746, "typical_volume": 7821.7, "trend": 4.542667, "fair_value": 4.699615, "relative_strength": -46.565134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.07314, "energy": 76.416677, "activity_lines": [ 3.12, 3.396182, 3.754381, 4.075849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.91, "volume": 3347, "typical_volume": 7447.4, "trend": 4.438, "fair_value": 4.685192, "relative_strength": -45.481162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.082907, "energy": 71.522034, "activity_lines": [ 2.996667, 3.272545, 3.643762, 3.970516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.79, "volume": 4491, "typical_volume": 7260.9, "trend": 4.331, "fair_value": 4.669615, "relative_strength": -48.611401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.073353, "energy": 91.048642, "activity_lines": [ 2.891333, 3.146545, 3.531476, 3.864194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }