{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abb9d3d9-c68b-4898-ab17-ce3c4bd27b71", "symbol": "200521", "name": "Changhong Meiling Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.443, "architecture_energy": 91.363, "architecture_maturity": 84.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.481, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.53, "rotation_up": 8.28, "upward_expansion": 21.87, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 80.63, "downward_expansion": 95.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.346667, 2.523863, 2.676808, 2.906482 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.29, "trend_reference": 3.240715, "distance_from_trend": -0.293366, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.543314, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.353712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.408032, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.430348, "excess_performance": -0.437748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.293366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132468, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.353712, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.41408, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022587, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.430348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.177204, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1038482, "relative_activity": 0.591679, "balance": 0.177204, "dry_up": 1.146364, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064937, "annualized_volatility": 0.381992, "from_high_reference": -0.522917, "from_low_reference": 0.036199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.240715, "fair_value_reference": 3.543314, "structural_low": 2.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.025805, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.105, "worst_return": -0.290527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002248, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.077325, "worst_return": -0.179775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.125393, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.037774, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.172275, "worst_return": -0.286064, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071926, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055961, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011312, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"direction": -50.80287, "energy": 53.340921, "activity_lines": [ 2.873848, 2.850245, 2.960312, 3.184559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.37, "volume": 2372074, "typical_volume": 1606063.7, "trend": 3.421048, "fair_value": 3.540507, "relative_strength": -39.713089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.998047, "energy": 72.995677, "activity_lines": [ 2.706463, 2.764613, 2.88321, 3.112921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.24, "volume": 3246594, "typical_volume": 1722539.0, "trend": 3.358381, "fair_value": 3.541391, "relative_strength": -42.388933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.413354, "energy": 95.86196, "activity_lines": [ 2.531333, 2.664884, 2.801441, 3.036725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.35, "volume": 1390981, "typical_volume": 1751671.05, "trend": 3.300381, "fair_value": 3.543251, "relative_strength": -37.709197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.413102, "energy": 92.323995, "activity_lines": [ 2.434667, 2.595715, 2.738243, 2.971668 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.29, "volume": 1038482, "typical_volume": 1755143.55, "trend": 3.240715, "fair_value": 3.543314, "relative_strength": -41.408032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.442733, "energy": 91.362885, "activity_lines": [ 2.346667, 2.523863, 2.676808, 2.906482 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }