{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abbd93fd-3092-4a5e-9197-033ada07e64d", "symbol": "VRA", "name": "Vera Bradley Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.862, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.0, "architecture_energy": 14.799, "architecture_maturity": 24.563, "architecture_confidence": 92.814, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.45, "rotation_up": 24.11, "upward_expansion": 50.47, "deceleration": 87.5, "rotation_down": 35.9, "downward_expansion": 25.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.572667, 3.691818, 3.680048, 3.585785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.47, "trend_reference": 3.378667, "distance_from_trend": 0.027032, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.502019, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.229235, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.255549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.371542, "excess_performance": 0.184088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027032, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135178, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.229235, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109678, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052555, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.371542, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.031466, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 745029, "relative_activity": 0.506233, "balance": 4.031466, "dry_up": 0.404949, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143409, "annualized_volatility": 0.678247, "from_high_reference": -0.209567, "from_low_reference": 1.496403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.378667, "fair_value_reference": 4.502019, "structural_low": 2.44, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.035166, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.018288, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.208511, "worst_return": -0.175214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.039002, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.144777, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.542714, "worst_return": -0.149573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031931, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0902, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.311966, "worst_return": -0.281562, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.016502, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.294574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.722222, "worst_return": -0.619437, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087746, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018721, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052941, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042892, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051948, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.589457, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004274, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.268199, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.282468, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127877, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.94, "volume": 558928, "typical_volume": 1295070.6, "trend": 5.845833, "fair_value": 7.365096, "relative_strength": 20.890537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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3.75, "volume": 648099, "typical_volume": 1868188.15, "trend": 3.290667, "fair_value": 4.564199, "relative_strength": 20.497529, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.582095, "energy": 44.888639, "activity_lines": [ 3.893333, 3.768909, 3.716571, 3.548602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.69, "volume": 360880, "typical_volume": 1838098.75, "trend": 3.337667, "fair_value": 4.546378, "relative_strength": 19.724421, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.06795, "energy": 29.160648, "activity_lines": [ 3.820667, 3.779091, 3.723429, 3.574366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.41, "volume": 629865, "typical_volume": 1542360.2, "trend": 3.365333, "fair_value": 4.524327, "relative_strength": 9.362176, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.953596, "energy": 11.539406, "activity_lines": [ 3.668667, 3.730364, 3.698714, 3.579032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.47, "volume": 745029, "typical_volume": 1471711.6, "trend": 3.378667, "fair_value": 4.502019, "relative_strength": 5.255549, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.000339, "energy": 14.799398, "activity_lines": [ 3.572667, 3.691818, 3.680048, 3.585785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }