{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abc1cab8-ce38-4bc1-9b44-40aef510fc92", "symbol": "8404", "name": "Paiho Shih Holdings Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.81, "architecture_energy": 35.181, "architecture_maturity": 83.31, "architecture_confidence": 86.195, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.0, "rotation_up": 26.55, "upward_expansion": 4.34, "deceleration": 58.46, "rotation_down": 41.69, "downward_expansion": 75.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.127268, 16.167609, 16.261078, 16.84775 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.1, "trend_reference": 18.11419, "distance_from_trend": -0.111194, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.262028, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20541, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -45.989602, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.28762, "excess_performance": -0.728992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111194, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12214, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20541, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009978, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.459896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032565, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28762, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.426654, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1159452, "relative_activity": 0.618312, "balance": 0.426654, "dry_up": 0.616011, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056191, "annualized_volatility": 0.242139, "from_high_reference": -0.428625, "from_low_reference": 0.03096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.11419, "fair_value_reference": 20.262028, "structural_low": 15.616517, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.001506, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.472222, "median_excess_return": -0.02627, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.553476, "worst_return": -0.185345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.008556, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.078806, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.454546, "worst_return": -0.295259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.047826, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.090741, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.435829, "worst_return": -0.174484, "sufficient": true }, { 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.622608, "energy": 38.082601, "activity_lines": [ 16.230831, 16.265515, 16.425749, 17.324498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.004505, "volume": 1310524, "typical_volume": 2097909.35, "trend": 18.552293, "fair_value": 20.293043, "relative_strength": -44.494621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.664476, "energy": 38.954863, "activity_lines": [ 16.172633, 16.216135, 16.346304, 17.144689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 842647, "typical_volume": 1917410.8, "trend": 18.350266, "fair_value": 20.274855, "relative_strength": -44.464933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.283161, "energy": 35.421659, "activity_lines": [ 16.156968, 16.204063, 16.302336, 16.992928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.1, "volume": 1159452, "typical_volume": 1875190.7, "trend": 18.11419, "fair_value": 20.262028, "relative_strength": -45.989602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.809639, "energy": 35.180524, "activity_lines": [ 16.127268, 16.167609, 16.261078, 16.84775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }