{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abc394bd-a627-4a55-8714-2e94aaf1af85", "symbol": "JXI", "name": "ISHARES TRUST GLOBAL UTILITIES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.257, "architecture_energy": 3.444, "architecture_maturity": 27.262, "architecture_confidence": 49.701, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.11, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 48.38, "deceleration": 74.24, "rotation_down": 23.23, "downward_expansion": 26.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.252, 84.4937, 84.453615, 84.55386 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 83.04, "trend_reference": 84.226271, "distance_from_trend": -0.014084, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 67.263197, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234553, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.674034, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0221, "excess_performance": -0.103525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014084, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025785, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234553, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065087, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047798, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0221, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.644884, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110801, "relative_activity": 0.840262, "balance": 0.644884, "dry_up": 0.592427, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027869, "annualized_volatility": 0.175251, "from_high_reference": -0.065863, "from_low_reference": 0.156104 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.226271, "fair_value_reference": 67.263197, "structural_low": 81.079991, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009471, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.01516, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.069996, "worst_return": -0.154716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.012704, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.004321, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092126, "worst_return": -0.098542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06762, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.009848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224232, "worst_return": -0.147042, "sufficient": 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84.559677, 84.454285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.33, "volume": 64558, "typical_volume": 138425.75, "trend": 83.883376, "fair_value": 66.873422, "relative_strength": -0.939698, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.492646, "energy": 37.523744, "activity_lines": [ 85.501333, 84.854685, 84.711886, 84.630828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.71, "volume": 57043, "typical_volume": 135545.75, "trend": 84.059632, "fair_value": 67.071855, "relative_strength": -4.865571, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.417212, "energy": 14.169203, "activity_lines": [ 84.928, 84.727166, 84.609306, 84.619643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.04, "volume": 110801, "typical_volume": 131864.75, "trend": 84.226271, "fair_value": 67.263197, "relative_strength": -8.674034, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.257443, "energy": 3.443801, "activity_lines": [ 84.252, 84.4937, 84.453615, 84.55386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }