{ "ticker": { "uuid": "abc66d8d-cb65-4924-aaed-ce231e41db36", "symbol": "CWCO", "name": "Consolidated Water Co Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.4, "architecture_energy": 30.177, "architecture_maturity": 65.063, "architecture_confidence": 92.243, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.21, "rotation_up": 26.56, "upward_expansion": 15.59, "deceleration": 44.8, "rotation_down": 39.68, "downward_expansion": 67.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.629333, 29.51551, 29.986831, 30.954813 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.49, "trend_reference": 32.552275, "distance_from_trend": -0.063353, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.186675, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044655, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.29598, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17313, "excess_performance": -0.360584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051439, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044655, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108512, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17313, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.887794, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 358505, "relative_activity": 0.643707, "balance": 0.887794, "dry_up": 0.760764, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050545, "annualized_volatility": 0.34639, "from_high_reference": -0.217306, "from_low_reference": 0.087495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.552275, "fair_value_reference": 29.186675, "structural_low": 28.036898, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.008152, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.00489, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.214548, "worst_return": -0.09113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011394, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.01658, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.357375, "worst_return": -0.105031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.226814, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.125472, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.811771, "worst_return": -0.158212, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043747, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069802, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042579, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-28", 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"down", "direction": -66.95084, "energy": 52.541296, "activity_lines": [ 29.315151, 29.527266, 30.631302, 31.85066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.17, "volume": 466221, "typical_volume": 668240.95, "trend": 33.11158, "fair_value": 28.993746, "relative_strength": -21.447715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.481561, "energy": 52.691241, "activity_lines": [ 29.212006, 29.411233, 30.38377, 31.58261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.32, "volume": 416548, "typical_volume": 666692.5, "trend": 32.906027, "fair_value": 29.061277, "relative_strength": -19.500128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.817478, "energy": 47.076478, "activity_lines": [ 29.212044, 29.387827, 30.191098, 31.337992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.2, "volume": 453521, "typical_volume": 651561.3, "trend": 32.723251, "fair_value": 29.130188, "relative_strength": -20.0238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.884823, "energy": 44.502243, "activity_lines": [ 29.200667, 29.33375, 30.014717, 31.098893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.49, "volume": 358505, "typical_volume": 556938.2, "trend": 32.552275, "fair_value": 29.186675, "relative_strength": -20.29598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.39972, "energy": 30.176999, "activity_lines": [ 29.629333, 29.51551, 29.986831, 30.954813 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }